高盛料中國明年經濟增長4.5% 第二季退出清零政策及重新開放
高盛中國首席經濟學家閃輝於第十二屆年度中國經濟國際研討會上表示,該行預期中國明年經濟增長4.5%,其中消費估計會有較大的提升,財政政策則可能有所收緊,而此等預測均基於中國明年第二季退出清零政策及重新開放的基本假設。
她指,重新開放的定義為即使感染個案上升,但政府不再實施封城。雖然內地疫苗接種率仍然不足,二十大後其實不具備開放條件,不過持續封城並不現實,對經濟影響非常大,加上Omicron傳染力強,未來疫情多點散發的情況估計不會改善,所以中國政府近日出台防疫二十條措施,優化檢測、醫療服務及疫苗接種等,期望利用未來四至五個月提升接種率,準備重新開放。
閃輝提到,以其他已重新開放的國家來看,開放後經濟恢復非常快,通賬亦會快速上升,但預測中國重新開放後經濟不會馬上復甦,甚至將有約一季時間的經濟表現更差,主要由於開放後人們擔心受感染而減少外出活動。因此,她估計中國明年上半年經濟表現或會非常差,但下半年將出現很強勁的反彈,2024年的GDP增長可能進一步升至約5.5%。
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