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摩通朱海斌料明年內房難見反彈 惟可於底部趨穩
摩根大通中國首席經濟學家朱海斌於第十二屆年度中國經濟國際研討會上表示,房地產行業對中國今年經濟造成的下行壓力很大,行業今年新房銷售下跌25%,新開工更降約40%,房地產活動指數自去年下半年開始一直下跌。他指,歷史而言政府政策調整後,房地產活動指數約九個月後會有所回升,但自去年底調整政策以來,指數至今仍未見好轉,市場開始擔心行業是次下行更多是結構性而非週期性調整。 朱海斌提到,中國房地產行業增長於2017年出現高點,當時政府首次提出「房住不炒」,其後於2017年至2020年間,雖然市場實際需求下降,但住房供應仍不斷增長,觸發今輪房地產市場調整的重要原因,正是政府擔心市場出現供大於求,增加中長期樓市調整的風險。不過,目前而言,在經過劇烈調整後,預期市場已回到基本水平,今後的調整或更多是符合實際有效需求逐年下降,因此現時行業的調整並非簡單週期性,而是更加深遠的結構性調整。 他認爲,年初至今,中國監管當局對房地產市場的系統性風險估計不足,即使很多講話指房地產下行對銀行體系造成的壓力可控,但房地產於中國的重要地位及系統性影響遠超出整個銀行體系,所以應要考慮更多對宏觀的影響,預期今年房地產行業下行對經濟的直接或間接衝擊或達兩個百分點以上。 他又稱中國新近推出房地產16條措施,可見政府政策有非常積極及務實的變化,雖然明年行業難見反彈,但估計可於底部相對弱的情況下趨向穩定,銷售及新開工跌幅預期會收窄至個位數,對經濟下行帶來的壓力較今年小。
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