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《內地樓市》穆迪:內房行業展望仍爲「負面」 料支持政策需時見效
阿思達克 11-22 14:09
評級機構穆迪表示,市場對中國經濟增長放緩、動態清零防疫政策限制及預售項目停工風險仍存有顧慮,樓市需求仍然疲弱,預料2023年底前行業合約銷售額將繼續下降10%至15%,因此對內房行業展望依然是「負面」。 不過,由於基數較低及支持政策有望見效,銷量跌幅預期較過去12個月水平要低。同時開發商繼續通過推出折扣來帶動銷售及現金流,因此預期平均售價將略有下降。在融資環境緊張的背景下,過去12至18個月開發商的購地和新項目開發步伐均已放緩,穆迪相信未來房地產新供應也會保持疲弱態勢。 穆迪副總裁兼高級分析師陳晨指,雖然內地當局近期推出對內房發展商的融資支持措施,可能有助改善企業財務靈活性,一定程度上緩解短期再融資壓力,但支持政策實際所帶來的影響將取決於措施實施的廣度、時間和效力。 穆迪預期金融機構和投資者仍然會審慎及選擇性向財務實力較弱的開發商增加支持。隨着行業繼續下行,開發商信貸水平分化和行業整合將會持續,信貸質量較強的開發商業績將較信貸質量較弱的同業優勝,同時政府持股的開發商在銷售增長及融資渠道方面表現亦會更好。 該行表示,若未來6至12個月全國合約銷售額可按年增長0%至5%、行業融資渠道得以改善,以及全國庫存與歷史平均水平基本持平,則會考慮將房地產行業展望調整至「穩定」。
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