《大行報告》大摩:內地近期確診趨升 料濠賭業復甦波動 降澳門今明兩年賭收預測各15%及3%
摩根士丹利發表澳門博彩行業報告表示,濠賭行業在今年第三季度錄得15億美元的負股權自由現金流(FCFE)。該行指,內地居民前往澳門內地電子簽證雖獲恢復,但內地自11月1日以來新冠確診不斷上升,未能明顯提升澳門到訪旅客數字。該行指由於廣東省和中國其他地區的新冠趨升,預計近期澳門博彩業復甦將會波動。
該行表示,下調對澳門2022年至2024年賭收預測按年各跌15%、3%及13%,將相當於2019年賭收水平各15%、43%及70%,該行指對澳門2022年及2023年賭收預測較市場同業預測分別低出10%及15%。
大摩料澳門今年博彩收入448.58億澳門元(按年跌48%)、估計澳門2023年博彩收入1,242.94億澳門元(按年升177%)、料澳門2024年博彩收入2,047.19億澳門元(按年升65%)。
該行表示,上調澳博(00880.HK)評級由「減持」升至「與大市同步」,因估值已變得合理,其目標價由2.5元升至3元;但下調美高梅中國(02282.HK)評級由「與大市同步」降至「減持」,目標價由4.5元降至4元,指非博彩投資也可能給美高梅中國帶來更大的負擔。
大摩表示,維持金沙中國(01928.HK)「增持」評級,將目標價由22元降至19元;維持銀娛(00027.HK)「與大市同步」評級,將目標價由47.5元降至47元。(wl/s)
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