《大行報告》高盛上調美聯儲加息預測 明年高峰料介乎5%至5.25% 料美國險避過衰退
高盛發表報告,指在經濟重啟效用減退、財政及貨幣收緊、中國防疫限制及房市下挫,以及俄烏戰爭陰霾下,今年全球經濟增長放緩。該行料明年全球經濟增長僅1.8%,美國具韌性的表現,與歐洲陷入衰退及中國顛簸重新開放大相逕庭。
報告料美國可僅僅避免陷入衰退,核心PCE通脹料由現時的約5%放緩至明年底的約3%,失業率則料升0.5個百分點。在實際收入增長轉強下,為致增長低於潛力,該行料美聯儲在今年及明年合計再加息125點子,終點利率目標範圍介乎5%至5.25%;高於該行原先估算介乎4.75%至5%。高盛料美聯儲將於12月加息50點子,隨後在明年2月、3月和5月各加息25點子。另該行不預期美聯儲明年將減息。
報告稱,預期核心通脹可顯著放緩但失業率僅微升,主因是次通脹周期與以前高通脹時期大有分別。
疫情後勞工市場過熱展現於前所未見的職缺,而不在於招聘過剩,要減少職位的「痛楚」相對較小。供應鏈及住宅租務市場近期正常化帶來的通脹減緩效應仍長路漫漫。再者,長期通脹預期仍有效錨定。
不過,歐元區及英國在面對燃料漲價壓力下或陷入衰退。不過該行料歐元區衰退幅度溫和,因歐洲大陸已大削俄羅斯油氣進口,但未嚴重打擊經濟活動,亦有望受惠於疫後復甦。考慮大幅下行的風險減弱及持續通脹,該行料歐央行將加息至明年5月,終點利率料見3%。
報告補充,料中國明年上半年增長緩慢,因明年4月起潛在重新開放,或致本地確診增加,政府將高度警惕。但隨著重新開放刺激見效果,明年下半年增長料急劇加快。該行對中國的長遠展望仍審慎,因房市滑坡及增長潛在減慢,反映於人口老化及生產力受壓。
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