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香港總商會:疫情重挫本港經濟 稱對外全面重開刻不容緩
阿思達克 11-17 11:38
香港總商會高級經濟師莊仕杰在總商會的11月《工商月刊》撰文表示,新冠病毒疫情和防疫社交限制重挫香港經濟,自2020年1月爆發疫情以來,本港經濟較2018年收縮約5%。另外,今年首八個月本地零售及餐飲業收入較2018年同期分別下跌30%和37%。 莊仕杰表示,隨著美聯儲今年3月起大幅加息,環球市況急轉直下,鑒於借貸成本增加不利投資和消費活動,加上金融市場下行造成的「負財富效應」,經濟恐持續受壓。香港方面,恆生指數和住宅價格自年初至今已分別下跌大約三成和8%。 他指,要令經濟重回正軌並不容易,因為人才外流導致人手短缺,香港總勞動人口已從2018年400萬的高位下跌6%,即使失業率較去年初略高於7%的水平回落,截至今年9月止三個月下降至3.9%,企業卻難以填補職位空缺,為復常做好準備。加上,不少企業,尤其是中小企,為了在疫情下維持營運,早已耗盡儲備,難以有餘力競逐人才。 他又指,本港近年的資本開支一直落後於其他發達經濟體。過去五年,香港的固定資本形成總額佔經濟產出的19.8%,而經合組織成員國平均為22.4%。這情況會抑制生產力,不利經濟持續發展及實質工資和生活水平的提升。 他最後表示,香港能否吸引人才和投資,將取決於能否維持全球其中一個最便利營商城市的地位;隨著愈來愈多國家地區重新開放、恢復往來和重啟經濟,全面對外重開大門更見刻不容緩。若然香港繼續原地踏步,對復常猶豫不決,恐怕會錯失良機。
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