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美銀:美股或將於明年3-5月見底
uSMART盈立智投 11-07 20:10

美銀本週五表示,股市的“大低谷”將在明年春天到來,預計股市將於3月至5月期間見底。與此同時,小盤股在未來幾年的表現可能優於大盤股,因爲目前的市場表現與上世紀70年代滯脹時期有很多相似之處。

美銀指出,美聯儲需要看到經濟陷入衰退,才能結束緊縮週期。到那時,股市就可以進入牛市。“當失業率達到8%、通脹率達到3%時,很容易做出調整。當通貨膨脹率爲8%,失業率爲3%時,要扭轉局面就困難多了。”

鑑於這一前景,美銀認爲標普500指數將從目前略高於3700點的水平下跌,並有可能跌至3000點。該行建議:“在標普500跌至3600點時啃一口,在3300點時咬一口,在3000點時狼吞虎嚥”。從長遠來看,美銀表示,"21世紀20年代的資產配置"仍類似於上世紀70年代。

“有很多相似之處”,美銀在將上世紀70年代與當前市場進行比較時表示,“交易區間大而寬,華爾街與美聯儲相互依賴,時斷時續的經濟政策,美聯儲強調核心通脹而非總體通脹,政治不穩定,戰爭,石油衝擊,食品衝擊,財政過剩,工業動盪等等。作爲這一策略的一部分,投資者可以“做多現金、大宗商品、波動性、小盤股、價值、資源、新興市場,做空股票、債券、成長型和科技股。”

美銀特別指出,在1973年至1974年的通脹衝擊結束後,小盤股進入了“大牛市”。在20世紀70年代,美國小盤股進入了歷史上最大的牛市之一,美銀預測小盤股將在未來幾年的滯脹中表現出色。

然而,對衝基金埃利奧特管理公司對當前形勢的評估悲觀,“世界正走在惡性通脹的道路上,這是全球社會崩潰、國內或國際衝突的直接路徑。”

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