植耀輝:觀望中期選舉美股揚 港股續升還看A股
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,美股隔晚(7日)造好,投資者觀望中期選舉,以及周四(10日)公布之10月CPI數據表現。另外美匯指數回落亦對投資氣氛有正面支持。最終道指上升423點或1.3%,收報32,827點,標普500指數及納指則分別上升0.96%及0.85%。
至於港股方面,昨日繼續有好表現,恆指再升434點或2.7%,收報16,595點。由10月31日之14,597點計,反彈已接近2,000點,畢竟恆指過去兩個月累跌實在驚人,而在A股反彈的情況下,恆指亦能受惠;另外美匯指數近期有所回落,人民幣匯價反彈對股市亦有利。故若A股及人民幣能持續走強,恆指亦有望延續反彈。只是筆者本身相信美匯有所轉強的情況應屬短暫,本周三(9日)美國亦將公布CPI數據,一旦持續高企,恐怕美匯又會再度出現反彈矣!因此筆者對後市看法仍有所保留,預期在17,000點會有較大阻力。
(筆者為證監會持牌人,並未持有相關股份)
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恆指站穩20天線後上望17,473點
耀才研究部稱,隔晚(7日)美股收市向上,市場觀望美國中期選舉以及周四(10日)公布的重磅通脹數據CPI,市場猜測共和黨可能重奪國會控制權,「特朗普概念股」大漲;不過,美國10年期債息維持在4.2厘的高位水平,限制了股市的升幅。港股方面,內房仍然會成為焦點,龍光集團(03380.HK)遭提清盤呈請,高盛報告認為內房板塊2024年的毛利率有望恢復至正常水平,推薦中海外(00688.HK)並給予超過一倍上望空間的目標價。另一方面,內地出現多宗本土確診個案,內地加強實施防控,堅持清零政策令炒作復甦概念的消費股受壓,投資者可先獲利離場以等待大市回調。
至於技術走勢方面,恆指上周接連升穿10天(15,433點)及20天線(15,927點),形勢有所轉強,由於累升不少,故不排除會出現回吐,惟短期若能企穩20天線水平,則整體走勢仍屬理想,下一個主要阻力為50天線17,473點。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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