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瑞銀料明年3月前內地不會明顯調整防疫政策
阿思達克 11-03 13:29
瑞銀投資銀行亞洲經濟研究主管暨首席中國經濟學家汪濤等發表報告,指內地防疫政策再度收緊,料即將公布的10月宏觀數據可能顯示經濟增長動能走弱,其中工業生產、社會消費品零售、房地產銷售和出口按年增速料走弱,而基建投資可能持續穩健增長。整體信貸按年增速可能企穩。CPI按年可能回落,而PPI可能陷入通縮。 報告認為,即將於12月召開的中央經濟工作會議預計會維持寬鬆基調。未來幾個月政策支持有望繼續加碼穩增長。該行認為今年冬季內地疫情仍將面臨挑戰。該行預計在明年3月全國兩會召開之前,現行防疫政策不會明顯調整,不過地方執行層面可能會持續微調和優化。該行認為中國需要進一步加快疫苗加強針接種(尤其是80歲及以上的老年人),改善醫療設施和增加醫院承載力,並更加科學地制定對Omicron病毒的宣傳策略和預期管理。 瑞銀續稱,未來幾個月,疫情可能持續抑制消費和服務活動復甦,出口增長勢頭料將放緩,房地產銷售和建設活動可能持續低迷,而基建投資可能依然穩健。整體而言,該行未來兩個季度經濟按季增速可能放緩。由於10月經濟活動增速預計走弱,該行對今年四季度GDP按年增長的基準預測(3.9%)面臨一些下行風險。 該行仍然預計從2023年二季度開始防疫形勢可能明顯好轉,維持對2023年全年GDP按年增長4.5%左右的預測不變。不過,中國有可能會在更長時間內維持現行政策,在這種情況下,2023年全年GDP增速可能明顯低於基準預測。
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