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《大行報告》中金:內地公募基金上季對港股持倉按季跌25% 重倉美團、騰訊、李寧及港交所等
中金發表策略報告表示,今年第三季度以來,港股市場在多重不確定因素下進一步走弱並創出新低,外資也有加速流出跡像,但對比之下南向資金依然延續淨流入甚至有所加速,該行梳理了內地公募基金於港股持倉情況, 截至今年第三季度,內地可投資港股公募基金(扣除QDII)總計2,647隻,總資產3萬億人民幣,佔全部10,089隻非貨基和16萬億人民幣總規模的26.2%和18.5%,較二季度支數增加204隻,但規模下滑13.6%,即4,667億人民幣。其中,主動偏股基金1,475隻(規模1.92萬億人民幣),支數增加122隻,但規模同樣縮減2,750億人民幣。另有203隻指數型基金(含ETF),規模1,476億人民幣,較今年第二季降低15%。三季度新發數量及規模較二季度回暖,季度月均新發基金62隻、規模392億人民幣。 中金指,2,647隻內地公募基金持有港股市值3,051億人民幣,較第二季度的4,042億人民幣減少25%,也是2020年以來最低水平,較2021年二季度5,837億人民幣的高點降低48%。港股持倉佔基金股票總持倉的15.3%,較今年第二季的17.1%下降1.8個百分點。其中,主動偏股型基金持倉2,269億人民幣,佔比從15.8%下降至14%。此外,公募持股佔南向整體(1.6萬億人民幣南向)比例季度下降3.1個百分點至18.6%,為2020年以來最低水平;其中主動偏股型基金佔港股通13.9%,較今年第二季的16.4%減少2.5個百分點。 該行指,今年三季度老經濟佔比顯著提升,特別是能源、電信和地產板塊。新經濟持倉佔比從第二季度73.3%回落至67.5%,「老經濟」板塊佔比提升5.8個百分點至32.5%,接近今年首季水平,與價值相對跑贏的市場表現較為契合。從板塊看,能源、電信和地產板塊持倉市值比例明顯提升,而製藥和生物科技、汽車與媒體娛樂比例的降幅居前。絕對配置水平上,目前零售、媒體娛樂和能源的持倉最高;食品飲料、個人用品和專業服務持倉最低。相對歷史水平,零售業、能源和食品飲料目前處於持倉高位;而資本品、保險、內銀、原材料和技術硬件等處於歷史低位。 個股層面,內地公募重倉美團(03690.HK)、騰訊(00700.HK)、李寧(02331.HK)、港交所(00388.HK)等龍頭公司,與第二季度無異。中移動(00941.HK)市值較第二季度增加近29億人民幣,在一定程度上體現了全球資產波動下,投資者更看重高股息回報。此外,重倉股集中度小幅弱化,前10大重倉股佔前100隻重倉港股市值的60.5%,較今年第二季降低0.8個百分點;前三隻佔比34.1%,較今年第二季小幅弱化。
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