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《大行報告》大摩降新天(00956.HK)及中廣核新能源(01811.HK)評級至「與大市同步」 下調龍源(00916.HK)評級至「減持」 削目標價
摩根士丹利發表研究報告指,內地當局進行可再生能源補貼核查進展近月陸續公布,預期高達10%的風電及光伏發電場可能會被取消補貼資格,認為第三季行業盈利增長僅屬暫時性,市場對第四季的預期過分樂觀。 大摩指,自從中國當局宣布碳中和及碳達峰目標以來,市場對內地風力及光伏新裝機容量的預測就持續增加,從每年100至120GW增均近180GW。同時由於項目資本開支龐大,市場亦預期政府將允許項目獲得合理的回報。 然而,該行認為,中國政府可能會改為對國企營運商施加強制新安裝量目標,同時降低門檻利率並提供充足的國有銀行融資支持,取代允許項目得到高利潤回報,預測風電及光伏項目的股權內部收益率將從2009至2020年的逾12%,降至6%至8%,以免與減碳及共同富裕的發展目標背道而馳。 大摩估計受評新能源企業今年度盈利最多有27%至58%受到影響,並下調多家公司的投資評級,新天綠色能源(00956.HK)及中廣核新能源(01811.HK)評級降至「與大市同步」,龍源(00916.HK)評級降至「減持」,目標價分別降至3.2、2.6及9元。
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