瑞銀料中國科技股基本面改善 惟重估仍需宏觀經濟支持
瑞銀財富管理投資總監辦公室股票策略師夏天表示,利率上升、地緣政治緊張和週期性增長普遍放緩,令科技行業經營充滿挑戰,市場對宏觀及監管環境的擔憂下,中國互聯網行業在過去一年半大幅下調,但在近一至兩個季度行業基本面整體有改善。
她預期,目前可見行業監管已接近尾聲,企業盈利回升、新業務虧損收窄均是不錯的訊號,指出現時中國科技股股價正處於歷史平均較低水平,與美國科企之間的估值差距已擴大至40%,認爲有可能迎來重估,但仍需要得到宏觀經濟及具體措施的支持。
她又指,中國於十四五規劃中提出目標至2025年每年全國研發支出增長7%,機械人安裝量每年增長20%,預期由於發展進程受到疫情阻礙,未來幾年工業自動化及科技於產業供應鏈的應用發展速度將再加快。
瑞銀預測全球互聯網普及率到2030年將達到82%,互聯網用戶量強勁增長將推動各行業技術滲透率進一步提升,至2030年網絡數據規模將增長10倍以上,主要受到物聯網發展的推動,並預測至2026年物聯網連接將增加一倍以上。
瑞銀財富管理投資總監辦公室股票策略師Sundeep Gantori認爲,疫情促進科技發展,過去兩至三年企業加快於人工智能(AI)的投資,預期2020至2025年AI相關投資規模將複合增長20%,另外各國陸續解除防疫限制亦對電子支付及金融科技發展有幫助。他又指,元宇宙仍在早期發展階段,預期未來兩至五年會見到更顯着創新突破。
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