《大行報告》摩通:對潤啤(00291.HK)斥百億購白酒商權益看法中性至正面 但現市況下市場傾向保守
摩根大通發表研究報告指出,對於潤啤(00291.HK)以總代價123億元人民幣收購金沙窖酒共55.19%股權交易,看法中性至正面,但在目前宏觀環境下,市場或傾向保守及審慎的擴張戰略,而非多元化收購。
該行認為,有關交易並無於潤啤的啤酒和白酒業務之間產生即時的協同效應,儘管管理技能可轉讓,但啤酒和白酒業務的分銷模式有所差異。而且,白酒相對於啤酒更具周期性,意味著在目前經濟下行周期下,盈利能見度較低。加上白酒零售價約每瓶300至500元人民幣,目標大眾市場,相比起高端及超高端細分市場(零售價約每瓶1,000至2,000元人民幣以上)的競爭更為激烈。
此外,摩通預期今年潤啤的收入、經調整EBIT、經調整EBITDA分別按年增長9%、27%及22%,明年料按年各升9%、23%及20%。予目標價83元,評級「增持」。
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