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《大行報告》中金:港股目前資金面反映面臨「三重壓力」 料短期震盪格局
阿思達克 10-24 11:04
中金發表策略報告表示,7月以來,港股市場在多重不確定因素下持續走弱,恆生指數於10月初跌破2011年以來低點,主板成交清淡,賣空佔比疊創新高,市場情緒較為低迷。在外部金融條件持續收緊、地緣局勢更為錯綜復雜的背景下,部分投資者擔心是否存在更大的資金流出壓力。 該行指7月以來海外資金的主動型基金流出有所加速,參照EPFR基金數據,發現3月中旬俄烏局勢以及中概股監管等因素影響下導致的港股波動背後,海外主動基金主導的資金流出可能是主因。從近期情況來看,發現情形可能類似,同樣是海外主動型基金流出為主,其內地與香港股和中概股流出幅度較為明顯。具體來看,7月以來,海外主動資金整體流出45億美元。從幅度上看,本輪較3月中旬仍較為溫和(3周內流出35億美元),但本輪流出時間較長,自7月15日以來已持續14周(對比3月中旬及4月至6月11周內流出約36億美元)。 中金認為,港股當前資金面情況反映的是市場面臨的「三重壓力」,即美聯儲緊縮影響流動性,內地增長影響盈利預期,以及地緣局勢影響風險偏好。短期來看,美聯儲在高通脹壓力下或將維持「鷹派」立場,意味著短期內全球資金避險情緒或將持續,而當前外資主動型機構大幅低配港股情況緩解或需要在後兩者上找到轉機。 該行指所幸的是港股市場已經具備幾項優勢,如當前市場已跌至數年低點,估值已經處於歷史低位,疊加內地寬鬆政策下南向資金的持續流入。這意味著海外中資股可能展現出更強的韌性。如果內外部環境有所改善,港股市場未來反彈力度有望更大。往前看,美聯儲在年底的政策如果可以退坡有望成為第一個壓力緩解的契機。而後續更多正面催化劑的出現。基於上述判斷,該行認為港股短期可能維持震蕩格局,但或處於底部區域。配置思路上,短期以高股息作為貶值和風險的對衝,但是優質成長、尤其是可能受益於未來內需和政策放鬆修復的消費成長可以擇機吸納、等待時機。
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