《大行報告》高盛下調貝殼-W(02423.HK)目標價至55元 評級「買入」
高盛發表研報指,貝殼(02423.HK)(BEKE.US)過去一個月股價大幅回落,自9月19日起累跌38%,預期近期股價疲軟主要由於投資者情緒低迷、市場憂慮房地產交易佣金率改變,以及市場對內房市場的擔憂等所致。
該行指出,中國現樓交易市場第三季出現較強勁復甦,市場數據顯示主要是政策支持及低基數效應所推動,但由於多個城市月份交易量出現按月回落,預測貝殼的現樓GTV第三季將達到4,690億元人民幣,按年增長24%,按季比較則升19%,並預計季度二手成交收入將按年增長22%,明年GTV及收入則預期增長22%及23%。
計及當局對市場經紀佣金率的潛在政策調整、房地產行業走勢及內房銷售前景,該行認為第三季是一個拐點,預計貝殼一手及二手GTV將實現自2020年第四季以來首次連續增長,並在過去四個季度虧損及盈虧平衡後轉為錄得盈利,預計非通用會計準則下淨利潤將達到10.9億元人民幣。
但考慮到行業前景,高盛將2023至2024年GTV、收入、非通用會計準則下淨利潤預測分別下調2%至7%、3%至8%,以及7%至10%,目標價由63元降至55元,維持「買入」評級。
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