債市出現十年未有奇觀！
今天除了美國一個月的國債之外，所有的國債的收益率都站到了4%的上方。這是過去十多年都少有的情況。他究竟意味着什麼呢？市場是否是因爲這個原因下跌的呢？我們來看一下。
來源：美投investing
不少投資者認爲，這樣的利率飆升，代表着市場對於美聯儲加息預期的變化。現在根據這些國債收益率的推算，市場預計美聯儲的終端利率，即未來的最高利率，已經來到了4.95%。現在的利率水平在3%，也就意味着還有將近200個基點的加息空間。這個數字和九月份公佈的點陣圖相比，高了30個基點。受到這個的影響，今天的市場也下跌了。
之前我們就提到，未來一段時間內，市場的關注點會圍繞在美聯儲加息是否會，“更高”和“更久”上。現在國債收益率的表現正在說明投資者已經在預測更高的終端利率了。這是一個不利的信號。
那麼爲什麼投資者會有這樣的預期呢？我認爲除了堅挺的財報表現以外，還有一個原因。那就是通脹還在上升。今早，英國的九月CPI數據出爐。數據顯示，英國的通脹又回到了兩位數，來到10.1%，環比上漲了0.2%。驅動這次CPI上漲的是食品和飲料的部分，飆漲了14.5%。加拿大也公佈了九月CPI數據，同比上漲了6.9%。雖然已經連續三個月下跌，但是跌幅仍然不及預期。核心CPI也繼續堅挺，上漲了5.4%。而且數據顯示，9月份的物價增速要比8月份還高，這意味着，加拿大央行下週可能要更爲激進的加息，目前市場預計的加息幅度爲75個基點。
這些國家的通脹數據在一定程度上也能爲美國的通脹提供指引，尤其是同在北美的加拿大。而持續火熱的通脹就意味着，美聯儲可能還要繼續加碼。投資者有這樣的預期也就不奇怪了。
美投君認爲，這段時間對於咱們投資者來說可能會十分難熬。倒不是因爲市場一定會下跌，而是現在市場對於消息的反應變得越來越難以判斷了。我們現在正身處財報季當中，公司財報好，自然是好事，但也可能意味着經濟過於火熱，通脹很難被控制。而經濟數據同樣面臨這樣的難題，到底是堅挺好，還是衰退好，市場還沒有給出一個明確的信號。這就意味着，現在賭方向並不明智，控制好風險纔是第一要務。我個人倒是希望看到經濟趕緊出現衰退的信號，早衰退早復甦，在這吊着命也挺難受的。不知道各位看官你們怎麼看呢？
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