《大行報告》富瑞下調東方海外(00316.HK)目標價至87元 削中遠海控(01919.HK)目標價至8.5元
富瑞發表研究報告指出,集裝箱運價未見底,下跌速度更超過預期,但盈利已見頂,至2023年下半年或潛在轉盈爲虧,因由2023年起供過於求將一直是問題所在。不過,該行認爲目前關注估值下限爲時過早,因預期利率和股價將再次下跌,因此重申行業「跑輸大市」評級,並指潛在供應中斷維持不確定因素,需求亦疲弱。
與之前的下行週期不同,該行認爲航運商的資產負債表明顯更強。中遠海控(01919.HK)和東方海外(00316.HK)2022年底淨現金(除息後)各爲每股7.38元人民幣及97.45港元,相信在強勁的財務狀況下,或導致航運商緩慢且逐步調整運力,以反映現貨運費的疲軟,估計行業目前仍處於盈利狀態。此外,在航運商仍專注於新造船訂單及併購的情況下,該行料股東不會受惠。預期中遠海控及東方海外於2022財年的派息率降至最低水平,約爲30%及40%。
該行將中遠海控目標價,由14元下調至8.5元,評級「持有」;將東方海外目標價由138元降至87元,評級「跑輸大市」。
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