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植耀輝: 道指回穩納指續跌 港股萬七關附近爭持
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,美股隔晚(11日)個別發展,道指靠穩,不過標普500指數及納指則仍未止瀉,當中芯片股跌勢顯著,拖累納指下跌超過1%。 港股方面,尋底格局依舊未變,大市低開22點後走勢未見改善,在科技股尤其是美團-W(03690.HK)跌勢加劇下恆指跌幅亦不斷擴大,最低曾跌至16,789點,最終收報16,832點,下跌384點或2.23%,科技指數跌幅更達到120點或3.55%,收報3,261點,再創面對以後新低。大市成交金額912億元。成份股中仍以下跌股份為主,多達11隻股份再創至少52周新低,當中包括騰訊(00700.HK),其股價最低見254.2元,收市亦跌近3.5%,收報254.6元。事實上,其他新經濟股表現亦差,美團便大跌6.1%,為成份股中第三差股份。至於表現最差仍是內房板塊,碧桂園(02007.HK)及龍湖(00960.HK)便分別下跌9%及8.5%。 由於隔晚中概股表現仍未見太大起色,加上投資者繼續關注經濟數據表現,恐怕大市仍難扭轉當前格局,當然若A股能有所反彈,對港股或有望帶來支持,只是在整體形勢仍未樂觀以及後市仍存在眾多變數下,預期恆指將於16,700至17,000點水平爭持。 (筆者為證監會持牌人,並未持有相關股份) ********* 恆指率先下試16000點支持 耀才研究部稱,隔晚(11日)美股收市個別發展,道指結束四連跌,反覆收升36點或0.1%,標指及納指連跌五日,納指今年內兩度陷入技術性熊市,美國十年期國債息率維持於4厘的高位水平,令股市持續受壓。IMF將明年全球經濟增長預測由7月份預計的2.9%下調至2.7%,並指全球超過三分之一的經濟體將連續兩個季度出現負增長。目前美國2年期與10年期國債息率倒掛0.35厘,幅度則較9月中的0.5厘低。金龍中國指數跌3.4%,再創五個月新低,人民幣走弱以及中美審計事宜未明朗成為了拖累市況的主因,指數以5年期平均市盈率來比較,最壞情況可以跌至低均值兩個標準差的水平,亦即16,000點。 技術走勢方面,恆指成功回補10月5日遺下的上升裂口,由於10月5日至7日出現了島型頂的形態,走勢更為利淡,小心指數MACD出現熊訊號的話將下試新低。 (筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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