渣打料恆指今年最多上試19,000點 美國75%概率陷衰退
渣打香港今日(6日)發表今年第四季市場展望報告,渣打北亞區投資總監鄭子豐指,港股市盈率約9倍,處於歷史低位,萎縮空間不大,而盈利料有約10%增幅,下行空間主要視乎香港和內地何時通關,恢復對不同產品如房屋等需求,以及利率上升令金融業貸款需求走弱,甚至呈負增長,對抵銷息差收入造成衝擊。
他續指,恆指目前最大風險是來自盈利,而非估值,預料今年恆指試行16,250至19,000區間,難以突破20,000大關,催化劑仍是視乎內地與香港通關及美國通脹情況。
至於美國經濟方面,鄭子豐表示,美聯儲態度強硬,料加息步伐將繼續增速,最快明年上半年才放緩,料截至今年底聯邦基金利率目標達到4.5%,明年則加0.25厘,並將美國經濟陷入衰退風險的概率預測由50%上調至75%。
他指,近期美元企穩,並有走強趨勢,料美匯指數未來上試117,要有待加息步伐放緩後,加上其他國家央行亦跟隨加息,美元強勢才有望扭轉。
該行看好亞洲(日本除外)股票,預期明年每股盈利增長強勁,為全球最高,主要受惠於中國貨幣及財政刺激,以及其信貸情況改善。
該行則對內地市場持審慎態度,認為二十大會議後推出的政策傾向精準型,包括防疫及房地產方面,但亦擔憂內地股市在短期內會出現一個較大的波動。
至於在板塊方面,該行看好能源股,其盈利表現強勁,或能跑贏大市,估值仍吸引,另看淡房地產股。
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