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《大行報告》高盛降英國富時100指數目標 指熊市尚未觸底 要走出低谷需通脹及利率見頂
阿思達克 09-27 11:53
高盛發表歐洲股市策略報告,一直認爲這個熊市尚未觸底,決定下調對STOXX歐洲600指數(SXXP )2023年每股盈利增長預測由原來零水平下修至跌10%,調低STOXX歐洲600指數未來3個月、6月個月及12個月目標預測至360點、380點及410點(原目標各爲390點、390點及460點),即潛在各跌7.8%、跌2.7%及升5%。該行建議持歐洲週期性股份(包括消費、建築及化工行業),建議增持防守性股份(包括醫療、電訊及再新能源行業)。 該行亦下調英國富時富時100指數於未來3個月、6月個月及12個月目標預測至6,600點、6,800點及7,500點(原目標各爲6,900點、6,900點及8,000點),即潛在各跌6%、跌3.1%及升6.9%。 高盛認爲這個熊市尚未觸底,要在這個週期中看到低谷,認爲第一是需要看到真正的低估值,第二是要結束增長惡化趨勢(即使GDP並未處於低谷),第三是通脹和利率見頂,以及第四是輕倉位情況。 該行指近期外匯走勢支持STOXX歐洲600指數企業的盈利,因STOXX歐洲指數中的公司銷售額的55%來自歐洲以外地區,其中很大一部分以美元計,當全球經濟增長將強於歐洲經濟增長,料STOXX歐洲600指數企業銷售額應該可受惠通脹影響的提振。該行估計歐元區和英國地區的歐元和英鎊兌美元匯率每波動10個百分點,每股收益就會增加約2.5個百分點。
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