植耀輝: 美股先升後回 港股反彈力度料有限
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,美股隔晚(26日)先升後跌,美匯繼續升至歷史高位,加上10期債息攀升,利淡美股表現。道指早段曾倒升近百點,納指亦曾重上11,000點;惟中段再度無以為繼,三大指數悉數下跌,當中道指下跌329點或1.1%,收報29,260點,標普500指數下跌38點或1%,收報3,655點,納指則跌65點或0.6%,收報10,802點。
港股方面,昨日表現依然欠佳,資源相關股大跌之餘,與英鎊相關之股份跌幅更鉅,匯控(00005.HK)便跌7.6%,長實集團(01113.HK)跌幅更達8.6%;幸好科技股造好,在ATM力撐下,恆指最終僅跌78點或0.44%,收報17,855點,大市成交則顯著上升至1,043億元。
現時困擾大市主要有兩方面,其一是強美元及息口去向,令其他貨幣如人民幣等承受較大貶值壓力,情況對A股及港股不利,惟現時美元強勢難以扭轉,意味後市仍會受到相關因素所影響。其次則是對全球經濟衰退之擔憂,資源股便首當其衝受到拖累。不過筆者暫仍維持看好煤炭及石油股,因仍預期歐洲仍會進一步收納相關儲備。只是整體市況仍十分不樂觀,縱有條件反彈,預期幅度仍相當輕微,18,200至18,300點預期已有相當大阻力。另外,雖然港股昨日暫能企穩17,800點之上水平,但多達17隻恆指成份股一度創至少一年新低,加上隔晚美股仍未見起色,恐怕港股今日(27日)仍會維持反覆尋底格局不變。
(筆者為證監會持牌人,並未持有相關股份)
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港股尋底 北水沽出資源股
耀才研究部稱,美股連跌五日,隔晚(26日)道指跌至接近兩年低位,與標指收跌1%,納指表現較好只跌0.6%。兩名聯儲票委包括Loretta Mester重申聯儲需要持續加息來打壓通脹水平,讓通脹回落到2%水平,而Susan Collins亦提到美聯儲需要需要進一步收緊貨幣政策,加息預期升溫令股市持續受壓。港股方面仍然缺乏利好催化劑,英鎊兌美元跌至紀錄新低1.0384後回升,留意匯控(00005.HK)及長和系能否反彈以協助大市站穩,北水昨日淨流出一億人民幣,終止連續四天流入的情況,主要沽售油股及煤碳炭股在反覆尋底的格局下,投資者仍然需要避開醫藥以及互聯網板塊。
恆指技術走勢方面,以週線圖來看,恆指分別於4月及6月高見22,400點水平,造成雙頂型態,於正式跌穿頸線19,200點水平後,最大量度跌幅可回試16,000點。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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