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中銀香港:美聯儲加息短期加大港息上調壓力
阿思達克 09-22 12:25
美聯儲在過去三次會議連續加息75個基點,創下1980年代初以來的最密集加息幅度,單次加息幅度為 1994年以來的最大。中銀香港首席經濟學家鄂志寰認為,9月的點陣圖顯示,大多數參與會議的聯儲局公開市場委員會成員都預計聯邦基金目標利率將於2022年底升至4%以上,意味著美聯儲在今年餘下的兩次會議中還有超過100個基點的加息空間,以抑制居高不下的通脹。 香港方面,鄂志寰指出,對於美聯儲的快速大幅度加息,港元利率亦有所反應,香港1個月香港銀行同業拆息從今年初的0.15%大幅上升至昨日(21日)的2.59%,創2020年初以來的新高。期間香港銀行體系總結餘則降至目前的1,250億元,加大港息上調的壓力,故香港銀行業短期有加息的壓力。 鑒於香港銀行體系流動性尚算充裕,因此港息的調升滯後於美息。未來港元利率的進一步調整除參考美國加息的速度和幅度外,也要看本港的資金流向和銀行體系流動性變化等情況。
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