《大行報告》大摩:內地8月通脹反映需求弱 料中央加大寬鬆措施 特別針對住房領域
摩根士丹利發表報告表示,中國公布今年8月全國居民消費價格(CPI)按年升2.5%,低於市場預期的2.8%、8月工業生產者出廠價格(PPI)按年上漲2.3%,低於市場預期升3.2%,指內地8月通脹數意外下行,反映了國內及國外需求疲軟。該行預計內地PPI增長或將降至約2%,估計核心CPI增長將保持在約1%,並估計中國政府將加大寬鬆措施,並可能在中共召開「二十大」之後逐步改變目前防疫策略。
該行估計內地未來幾個月PPI按年增長可能進一步放緩,料下半年平均處於約2%水平,第一是由於內地停電因素及去年基數較高;第二全球經濟衰退風險上升,國內增長放緩,對大宗商品PPI造成較大壓力。而內地CPI壓力也可能保持可控,下半年平均可能處於3%水平。
大摩預計北京將出台更加一致的寬鬆措施,特別是針對對住房領域(如擴大項目交付貸款和進一步下調5年期市場報價利率(LPR))。
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