中信證券：緊扣上游成本變動預期，共用環保行業貝塔機遇來臨
本文來自格隆匯專欄：中信證券研究，作者：李想
現貨煤價回落&長協佔比提升助力火電盈利趨勢改善可期，火電壓艙石地位重受重視，裝機規模增長有望超預期。價格高企刺激投資意願，大量硅料產能即將陸續釋放將推動價格拐點過來，帶動光伏組件價格回落提升綠電項目回報並刺激運營商裝機積極性。水電長期來水預期依然平穩，缺電事件引發大水電機制重估，大水電博弈地位或提升並帶動其價值重估。
▍燃料成本壓力料H2下降，火電業務盈利改善在即。
年初以來國內用電需求及火電發電量增速明顯弱於去年同期，考慮按到需求疲軟疊加港口庫存較高，以及各部門加強電煤價格及中長協覆蓋比例監管，我們預計下半年動力煤價將温和下跌，推動下半年火電度電盈利改善至0.006元/千瓦時。本輪缺電中，火電在電力系統中的壓艙石地位重新得到審視，裝機規模有望實現超預期增長，我們預計2025年末全國火電裝機在悲觀/中性/樂觀情況下達到13.4/15.0/15.4億千瓦。
▍光伏即將度過成本壓力高峯，綠電高質高速成長可期。
上半年海外組件需求高增導致國內光伏原料及組件價格增長，國內綠電運營商陷入保成長與保股東回報的兩難境地。持續上漲的硅料刺激多晶硅企業擴產，上半年多家廠商發佈約200萬噸的產能擴張計劃，遠期國內硅料產能有望支撐每年1000GW的裝機目標。我們預計今年底或明年初硅料價格觸頂，拐點出現帶動組件價格回落，提升終端光伏電站回報並有效刺激綠電運營商裝機積極性。
▍長期來水預期仍然平穩，大水電博弈地位或逐步提升。
今年上半年國內來水顯著偏豐，但7月以來汛期極度偏枯對水電大省電力保供帶來挑戰。從多年曆史數據看，高温天氣和極端降雨減少並無直接相關性，龍頭水電的長期來水預期依然平穩，水電內在價值不受短期來水偏枯的影響。相比落地省火電標杆和市場電價而言價格偏低，優質清潔水電價格低估明顯，我們測算出龍頭電站外送水電的落地電價普遍低於落地省的火電標杆電價/市場化電價約0.04/0.10元/千瓦時。預計隨着汛期缺電事件蔓延，龍頭水電有望在博弈中逐漸佔據有利地位，電價有望隨着市場機制完善而逐步上漲，相應帶其動價值重估。
▍風險因素：
用電量增速超預期下滑；煤價大幅上行；售電價格大幅下降；新能源裝機增長不及預期；風光造價大幅上行。
▍投資策略。
上半年水電及新能源等非火電板塊普遍經營數據表現突出，火電盈利雖仍然平淡但持續修復可期，並正在帶動全行業盈利增速觸底反彈，行業基本面持續好轉疊加能源轉型帶來的中長期發展機遇，為電力行業持續帶來配置機會。投資主線上，硅料及煤炭的成本預期變化將帶來行業貝塔機遇，建議聚焦受益上游煤價及硅料價格回落、市場對成本端預期正在發生變化的新能源及火電轉型公司；來水偏枯期仍能出力，龍頭水電內在價值也正得到市場重新認識。
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