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《大行報告》富瑞:中國AI、GPU、CPU等屬美制裁高危行業 自動駕駛芯片恐被禁售
富瑞發表研究報告,引述報道指美國或限制美資對中國科技企業投資(已於6月提出);禁止向中國出售其他類型人工智能(AI)芯片;以及限制海外企業收集美國國民個人數據,如Tiktok。報告形容對此不感意外,但更大問題在於,如何定義「科技企業」。現時已有68家中國企業被列入美國投資禁令。該行相信中國的AI、圖形處理器(GPU)、中央處理器(CPU)、電子設計自動化系統(EDA),以及單對乙太網(SPE)企業是高危目標。 報告稱,該行上周已提出美國禁止英偉達(NVDA.US)及超微半導體(AMD.US)向中國出售先進GPU,只是美國限制中國發展先進科技額外行動的序幕。報告引述外電指過去數日,美國總統拜登或簽署行政命令,限制美資對中國科技企業投資,該行提醒投資者,6月時部分民主黨國會議員已提出該倡議,作為《美國創新與競爭法》的一部分。由於法案未有落實該倡議,相信拜登政府將透過行政命令落實部分倡議。整體方向在於堅決制止中國取得美國先進技術,及阻止美國資金協助中國發展先進科技,以增強中國軍事力量等。現時有68家中國企業被列入「中國涉軍企業名單」(CMIC),將直接面對美國投資禁令。 該行預期潛在對象是AI公司,人面識別技術開發商、GPU/CPU設計室、EDA及SPE企業。不過該行認為阿里-SW(09988.HK)及騰訊(00700.HK)被列入(投資禁令)的機會低,因這恐對資本市場造成重大干擾,美國投資者(特別是散戶)會受到損害。 富瑞表示,由於傳媒報道缺乏詳情,該行猜測,英偉達、英特爾(INTC.US)及高通(QCOM.US)開發的自動駕駛(AD)芯片或面對對華銷售禁令,而不是英偉達及超微旗下性能相對弱的GPGPU芯片。因使用多枚低端GPU不能代替一枚高端GPU的效果。因此,該行不相信美國將禁止對華出售低端伺服器GPU。但自動駕駛(AD)芯片屬高階處理器,透過深度學習可執行複雜算或,及作軍事上應用。因為,自動駕駛芯片恐受美國銷售禁令所限。 更甚者,美國政治事件料進一步加劇中美科技戰。美國國會中期選舉將於11月8日舉行,意味未來60日將全面展開選舉工作。民主黨勢全力保住眾院控制權,並對2024年總統選舉有影響。對華政策或屬外交政策核心,屬對選舉支持度構成影響,意味民主黨或透過對華強硬立場來爭取選民支持。
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