《大行報告》摩通:內房最壞情況還沒有結束 續建議逢低買入國企背景內房 趁反彈沽出陷入困境物管股
摩通發表報告,不認為內房最壞的情況已經結束。雖然政策消息,如救助基金或放寬購房限制可能會令市場短期振奮,但在銷售穩固地復甦前,預計股價不會出現持續的反彈。
報告指,在上半年業績中,內房開發商的核心淨利潤平均按年下降44%,而物業管理公司的核心淨利潤平均按年增長12%,較上財年的52%放緩。對於2022財年,該行認為內房商交付可能會繼續疲軟,利潤率在底部徘徊。至於物管股收益可能繼續受疲軟的社區增值服務業務和減值所拖累。由於銷售疲弱、封城憂慮和配售等風險,投資氣氛薄弱,空頭興趣亦在上升。
摩通繼續建議逢低買入國企背景內房,並趁反彈沽出陷入困境的物管股。當中,該行看好華潤置地(01109.HK)、中國海外發展(00688.HK)、華潤萬象生活(01209.HK)、保利物業(06049.HK)和中海物業(02669.HK);對融創服務(01516.HK)、世茂服務(00873.HK)和金科服務(09666.HK)保持謹慎態度,因為自8月中旬以來,它們的表現平均跑輸國企指數10%,預計仍有40%的潛在下跌空間。
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