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《大行報告》摩通:參考巴郡2007年沽清中石油持股教訓後 仍看好比亞迪(01211.HK)
摩根大通發表報告表示,比亞迪(01211.HK)股價自8月24日以來已調整10%(對比國指同期累跌2%),相信是因港交所文件顯示,股神巴菲特旗下投資旗艦巴郡(BRK.A.US)於8月24日出售133.1萬股比亞迪股份,持股量由20.04%降至19.92%。因市場憂慮巴郡未來或會繼續削減其在比亞迪所持倉位。該行指參考巴郡於2007年下半年剝離其持有的中石油(00857.HK)的類似事件的經驗教訓,該行仍然看好比亞迪前景,維持「增持」評級及目標價410元。 該行指參考巴郡於2007年下半年剝離其持有的中石油的類似事件的經驗教訓,巴郡在2007年7月及10月進行股份出售,中石油的每股股價在2007年7月和10月分別為11港元和16港元,當巴郡完成處置中石油持股後,當時伴隨著強勁的行業周期,中石油股價於2007年11月一度高見19港元,並在2008年遇上全球金融風暴後才明顯回落。 摩通指,據聯交所的申報規則,當其持股百分比水平上升或下降變動,大股東有義務向交易所申報超過一個整數百分比。在上述比亞迪的案例中,巴郡的權益從20.04%下降到19.92%,在8月24日觸及了20%水平,因此在該日期須進行披露。換句話說,巴郡可以繼續減持比亞迪H股,並且只需要在下一次跨越一個整數百分比時披露其交易(如持股由19%降至18%)。過去三個月比亞迪H股的日均交易量約為790萬股(或過去六個月為820萬股)。 若巴郡要通過公開市場悉數出售剩餘的約2.18億股比亞迪股份可能具有挑戰性,例如假設巴郡交易量佔比亞迪日均交易量的10%,則需要約270個交易日才能完成全部處置。從技術上講,該行認為透過大宗交易進行似乎更為可行。
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