穆迪:中國增長前景放緩將加大經濟各領域信用壓力
評級機構穆迪表示,中國堅持疫情動態清零政策的影響、房地產業持續疲軟,以及出口增長放緩,預期將令全年GDP增速從5月份預測的4.5%進一步降至3.5%。雖然對增長放緩的政策關注度將提高,但穆迪估計支持措施的幅度可能不會很激進,並且在消費者和企業持謹慎立場的情況下政策效果尚不確定。
穆迪副總裁/高級信用評級主任李秀軍表示,中國當前的疫情動態清零政策更有針對性,料將制約下半年的經濟復甦,指出潛在封控措施將繼續干擾經濟活動,削弱消費者和企業的需求。土地交易減少限制地方政府支持經濟活動的能力,相信房地產相關行業將受到較大衝擊。
穆迪預期,今年地方政府可能出現預算赤字,同時需要更多地依靠城投公司來滿足龐大的基建支出需求,預期受評公用事業和交通運輸企業將會受惠;消費服務企業受影響更大,而大部分受評工業企業在應對增長放緩方面處於有利地位,高收益債券發行企業仍將面臨融資極其困難的局面。
穆迪副總裁/高級信用評級主任Martin Petch則表示,若防疫相關限制持續放鬆,預計2023年中國經濟將全面復甦,GDP增速回升至4.8%,更長期內中國經濟有望強勁增長,增速超過多數發達國家和同類國家的水平。
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