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高盛料英國今年末季經濟陷衰退 無阻英倫銀行9月加息半厘
阿思達克 08-29 11:50
高盛預計,英國經濟將在今年第四季陷入衰退,在能源成本飆升的情況下更有可能會陷入深度衰退,但仍然不太可能阻止英倫銀行進一步收緊貨幣政策,預計9月再加息半厘,11月及12月再分別加息四分一厘。 高盛估計至明年中,英國經濟將萎縮約1%,明年(全年)計則料收縮0.6%,大幅扭轉此前估計的1.1%增幅,認為在能源危機惡化下,英國生活成本壓力繼續加劇,預計明年第二季家庭儲蓄率跌至紀錄新低的3.5%,而明年實際可支配收入將下降2.9%,實際消費將下跌1.4%。。 高盛續指,若天然氣價格持續處於高位,家庭可能會減少額外的儲蓄,而政府的額外財政支持可能會較基本預測為少,在這種情況下英國明年經濟或將萎縮多達3.4%。
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