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南亞新材(688519)2022年中報點評:積極佈局車用板業務 產能有序擴建
格隆匯 08-15 00:00
【投資要點】受上海疫情的影響,業績不及預期。公司發佈半年報,2022 年H1 公司實現營業收入18.77 億元,同比下滑5.82%;實現歸母淨利潤0.83億元,同比下滑62.36%,其中Q2 實現歸母淨利潤0.12 億元,同比下滑91.69%,這主要是由於公司目前有三個工廠位於上海,今年Q2 上海的疫情對工廠的產能衝擊較大。同時,受國內疫情、宏觀經濟等的影響,行業市場不景氣,消費電子等下游終端市場需求不及預期,公司產品單價及銷量同比下降。原材料價格上漲拉低毛利率水平。2022 年H1 公司毛利率為11.86%,同比下滑7.50pct,其主要原因是原材料價格相較於去年同期有所上漲及新增產能釋放期間單位人工制費偏高導致營業成本上升。從費用端來看,2022 年H1 公司期間費用率為9.52%,同比上升2.93pct,主要是公司研發投入大幅增加所致,2022 年H1 公司研發費用為1.30 億元,同比增長了59.86%。國產替代趨勢穩定,研發方向貼合市場需求。2021 年全球CCL 行業產值達到188.07 億美元,其中中國大陸及香港CCL 產值接近140 億美元,佔全球產值份額約74%,已經成為全球覆銅板主要生產製造基地。在國產化趨勢穩定的前提下,市場需求也逐漸清晰,目前汽車電子電動化、智能化成為大趨勢,車用板和高頻高速板成為市場關注核心。2022 年上半年,公司積極研發應用在車載毫米波雷達、新能源高電壓快充領域的高耐壓、高MOT 功放領域、AiP 封裝領域的低CTE 低介電、LED 領域的黑色覆銅板、射頻通訊領域的Ultra-low 型覆銅板等,並且在PCB 及OEM/ODM 終端客户開發的新項目持續投入驗證費用,積極完成多樣化的業務佈局。有序推進產能擴建,擴大市場競爭優勢。江西生產基地N5 工廠一半產能已於Q2 順利達產,剩餘一半產能預計Q3 達產,同時N6 工廠正在有序建設中;上海生產基地在保證現有傳統產品產能的同時,為了應對下游IC 載板市場的爆發,擬投入42,560 萬元建設年產120 萬平米IC 載板材料的智能工廠項目,這也是我國高端產品打破日韓企業壟斷、實現國產替代的重要一步,有利於公司技術實力的進一步提升,項目建成後也會改變公司現有的產品結構,整體提升公司的毛利率水平。【投資建議】公司主營業務是覆銅板和粘結片等複合材料及其製品的設計、研發、生產及銷售,具體產品包括普通FR-4、無鉛兼容型、無滷無鉛兼容型FR-4 和高頻高速及其他覆銅板,目前公司已與奧士康、方正科技、廣東駿亞、滬電股份、瀚宇博德、健鼎科技、景旺電子、勝宏科技、深南電路、生益電子等知名PCB 廠商建立了長期良好的合作關係。根據公司所處行業前景和上半年業績表現,我們下調公司2022 年營業收入至50.98 億元,上調公司2023 年營業收入至70.29 億元,預計公司2024 年營業收入為89.77 億元;考慮到公司營業成本的上漲,我們下調公司毛利率水平,同時下調公司2022/2023 年歸母淨利潤至3.97/5.73 億元,我們預計公司2024 年歸母淨利潤為7.29億元,2022/2023/2024 年EPS 分別為1.69/2.45/3.11元,對應PE 分別為16/11/9 倍,給予 “增持”評級。【風險提示】疫情反覆的影響;下游需求不及預期;原材料價格上漲風險。
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