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郭思治: 大市初呈回穩信號 但動力並不相配
香港股票分析師協會副主席郭思治稱,大市經過上周四(11日)、周五(12日)連升兩日後,由於恆指已初步重越20,000點大關,且亦成功重越10天線(19,992點),即單從技術上看,大市該已初呈回穩信號,惟美中不足處乃成交金額不但未能配合而有所增加,反之,交投更續見萎縮,由於動力不配,致整個大市雖能穩收於20,000點之上,但市內氣氛卻相當保守,故目前大市暫衹屬技術性後抽而已,惟以恆指於上周五報收在20,175點計,相距本月5日高位20,283點僅差108點而已,故技術上確有試頂之機會,衹是即使如此,在交投持續偏疏下,暫對短期後市不能抱太多上望憧憬。 值得留意的是,大市雖已稍重越10天線(19,992點),惟成交金額卻持續偏疏,在動力不配之下,大市之升勢顯得頗艱難,另外,由於市內氣氛淡靜,故投資者多續抱觀望,故即使大市能稍作技術性之回升,但亦未見有任何欲上衝之熾烈感,另外,在動力不配之下,大市之回升該暫屬有波幅而無升幅,有反彈而無大升之技術性後抽而已。 況且,目前困擾大市之利淡因素實不少,如美國通脹仍然偏高,聯儲局該會進一步大幅加息,而整個加息周期亦會較市場估計為長,至於港息與美息之差距正越來越大,為穩定港元匯價,港息該會開始上調,另外,內地爛尾樓事件仍有待解決,影響所及,一眾內房股均已跌近年內低位,(除央企及省企例外),還有阿里-SW(09988.HK)及騰訊(00700.HK)之大股東均持續減持手上股份,對此市場之反應當較負面,亦正因如此,兩者之股價月來均持續處反覆偏軟之中,而受上述多項利淡因素所影響,資金之入市態度越來越保守,故整個大市之成交金額亦持續萎縮,嚴格來說,一日情況仍未見改善前,大市仍難抱太多上望憧憬,面對持續偏淡之市勢,投資者最好盡量保留實力,靜待另一次低吸良機。 (筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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