《大行報告》花旗料港銀淨息差擴張下半年放緩 明年見頂後年回落
花旗發表研究報告指,考慮到最新的遠期利率曲線預期,估計香港銀行的淨息差可能在明年見頂,並於2024年起回落,或降至2019年相若水平,指出由於存款競爭加劇以及按揭利率觸及封頂位,預計港銀淨息差擴張步伐下半年將放緩,認爲香港銀行的淨資產收益率有可能較現時有所改善,推動市賬率重估,惟市場上對衰退風險及利率高企的擔憂或削弱行業情緒。
港匯差距下大多數按揭貸款利率已達到封頂位,香港銀行同業拆息(HIBOR)進一步上升亦不會爲銀行帶來更多按揭利息收入增加,因此匯控(00005.HK)與渣打(02888.HK)次季先後將淨利息收入敏感度預測下調13%及41%,估計由於實際按息現階段已封頂,若港元兌美元利率每平行變動25個基點,將帶動恆生(00011.HK)及中銀香港(02388.HK)淨息差增加8個及7個基點。
花旗指出,根據往績,當香港銀行曾在平均融資成本接近0.7%、HIBOR接近2%時,最優惠利率(P)將上調,而今年6月份綜合利率達到0.47%,HIBOR爲約1.57%,預期P上調愈來愈接近,預測第三季度本港最優惠利率將增加25個基點。
息口上調推動資金由活期及儲蓄存款(CASA)轉向定期存款,該行預測恆生和中銀香港的CASA比率在未來幾年會下降;預期與香港本地銀行相比,匯控(00005.HK)及渣打的總回報收益率會更高,對匯控及中銀香港給予「買入」評級,渣打評爲「中性/高風險」,並給予恆生「中性」評級,看法較爲謹慎。
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