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九洲藥業(603456):CDMO業務高速增長 定增加速後續佈局
格隆匯 08-05 11:40
事項: 8 月4 日,公司發佈2022 年中報,2022 年上半年,公司實現營業收入29.54億元(+58.15%),歸母淨利潤4.68 億元(+70.31%),扣非淨利潤4.68 億元(+90.37%)。 評論: CDMO 業務增長加速,帶動公司業績高速增長。2022 年上半年,公司CDMO業務實現收入19.72 億元,同比增長93%。從項目管線的情況來看,截至報吿期末,公司承接的項目中,已上市項目23 個,處於III 期臨牀項目55 個,處於I 期和II 期臨牀試驗的有 662 個。比去年底的已上市項目20 個,處於 III 期臨牀項目49 個,處於I 期和II 期臨牀試驗的582 個又有較為明顯的增長。展望未來,我們認為一方面來自諾華的諾欣妥、瑞博西利等重磅品種訂單仍將有較為明確的放量,另一方面隨着增量訂單的逐步豐富和放量,公司CDMO 業務仍將保持快速的增長狀態。 原料藥業務保持穩健增長,新品種有望逐步進入放量週期。2022 年上半年,公司原料藥業務實現收入7.78 億元,同比增長18%。報吿期內,公司進一步拓寬原料藥產品線,積極佈局抗炎類、抗感染類領域。並持續推動原料藥業務向製劑端的延伸。未來隨着西格列汀等新品種的上市放量,我們預計公司原料藥業務也將保持較好的增長。 發佈定增預案,有望加速公司CDMO 業務發展。在發佈中報的同時,公司也公吿了最新的定增預案。擬對不超過35 名特定投資者非公開發行A 股股票不超過7,000 萬股,募集資金總額不超過25.00 億元,用於新CDMO 生產基地的建設和補充流動資金。我們認為,在市場需求強勁、政策整體向好以及客户資源豐富的現狀下,公司通過此次定增,有望加速新產能的建設、不斷完善客户服務質量,持續提升綜合服務能力,從而進一步鞏固和提升公司的市場競爭力和行業地位。 投資建議:基於公司明確較快的增長前景,我們略微上調盈利預期,我們預計22-24 年公司歸母淨利潤為9.11/12.15/16.24 億元(此前預測22-24 年歸母淨利潤為8.77/11.81/15.64 億元), 同比增長43.6%/33.4%/33.7% , EPS 為1.09/1/46/1.95 元(此前預測22-24 年EPS 為1.05/1.42/1.88 元),當前股價對應2022-2024 年PE 分別為43/32/24 倍,考慮到公司高速發展態勢,以及我國CXO行業的高景氣度,我們認為應適當給予較高的估值水平,參考可比公司估值,給予2022 年60 倍PE,對應目標價為65.4 元,維持“推薦”評級。 風險提示:1、CDMO 訂單需求出現波動;2、CDMO 重大客户流失風險;3、原料藥老品種放量不達預期;4、原料藥新品獲批及放量進度低預期。
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