You are browsing the Hong Kong website, Regulated by Hong Kong SFC (CE number: BJA907). Investment is risky and you must be cautious when entering the market.
阿里巴巴-SW(09988.HK):新業務減虧成效顯著 大盤漸進復甦
1QFY23 收入符合預期,利潤超預期 公司公佈1QFY23 業績:收入2,056 億元基本與去年同期持平,符合市場預期;調整後EBITA344 億元,高於市場預期19%,非通用準則歸母淨利潤314 億元,高於市場預期8%,主要由於降本增效超預期。 發展趨勢 疫情趨緩後核心電商逐步修復,但宏觀環境依然面臨不確定性。在疫情衝擊下,1QFY23 淘寶天貓GMV 出現中單位數的同比下滑,而物流供應鏈中斷導致的退貨率上升和商家支出趨於謹慎,使得核心商業收入同比下降10%至723 億元。隨着疫情緩和,6 月核心電商逐步恢復,公司表示7 月環比進一步改善。但考慮到宏觀環境依然存在不確定性以及消費修復尚需時日,我們預計核心電商GMV 和收入或不會出現明顯反彈,而是呈現逐步改善的趨勢。 多業務矩陣形成互補,新業務減虧顯著。得益於阿里巴巴豐富的矩陣,在疫情衝擊下盒馬、餓了麼非餐業態表現優異,季度GMV 分別同比增長超過30%和超過50%,高德地圖6 月DAU 也達到1.2 億,直營和其他業務、本地生活業務收入分別同比增長10%和5%;在減虧方面,餓了麼客單價提升、補貼率降低和配送成本優化帶動單位經濟模型(UE)轉正,使得本地生活明顯減虧;國際商業部分,Trendyol 和速賣通承壓,但被Lazada 變現率和運營效率提升部分抵消,從而實現減虧;雲計算保持穩健,非互聯網行業成為增長驅動因素,非互聯網行業收入佔比同比提升5%至53%。 從用户數量轉向用户體驗,投入與降本增效並行。本季度阿里巴巴不再公佈中國商業用户數,投入重心從拓展用户進一步向提升用户參與度和錢包份額傾斜。降本增效與投入並不矛盾,我們認為降本增效是阿里面對不確定性的取捨,將資源聚焦在可長期產生價值、促進業務發展和服務消費者的雲計算技術、菜鳥基礎設施和人力資源等領域,有望為高質量增長奠定基礎。 盈利預測與估值 目前公司港股交易於13/10 倍2023/2024 財年非通用會計準則市盈率,美股交易於12/10 倍。鑑於消費復甦的不確定性,我們下調2023 和2024 財年收入2%和4%,同時考慮到公司降本增效,維持2023 和2024 財年非通用會計準則淨利潤預測不變。我們維持跑贏行業評級,維持美股和港股基於SOTP 的目標價140 美元和137 港元,對應美股和港股2023/2024 財年非通用會計準市盈率為18/15 倍和18/15 倍,分別有46%和44%的上漲空間。 風險 新冠疫情不確定性,宏觀經濟及監管的不確定性,競爭加劇。
Follow us
Find us on Facebook, Twitter , Instagram, and YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
uSMART
Wealth Growth Made Easy
Open Account