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植耀輝: 變數多港股續拉鋸 新特能源(01799.HK)可博反彈
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,港股本周受地緣因素拖累,恆指一度低見19,500點邊緣,其後隨著局勢稍趨緩和,加上美股又大幅造好,令恆指重上兩萬點水平。只是後市變數甚多且複雜,今晚(5日)美國就業數據結果便可能又令美股變得波動。另外企業業績以至內地樓市及經濟等最新消息亦會左右投資氣氛。故對後市暫不宜有太多憧憬,亦只宜審慎行事。 股份方面,近期不少板塊出現顯著回調,建議可趁機吸納部分受惠國策兼有盈利支持之股份,新特能源(01799.HK)便是其中之一。股價近期顯著下跌,除了市況不濟外,有消息指工信部已牽頭有關部門協調多晶硅價格飆升之情況,另外亦不排除是與股價早前大幅抽升有關。不過根據較早前之資料顯示,受新疆四家企業因正常檢修或受意外停產影響,多晶矽產量7月出現年內首次下跌;同時海外多晶矽進口亦受多國港口罷工事件影響而令船期受阻,令矽料供應緊缺的狀況未見改善。在此情況下,預期多晶硅價格年內仍會維持高位,對從事多晶硅生產之新特有利。 該公司早前亦已宣布盈喜,預期上半年度股東應佔溢利將達到55億至60億元人民幣,按年急升超過3.5倍。值得留意的是,新特去年全年盈利為49.55億元人民幣,意味今年上半年已超過去年全年。加上憧憬未來派息比率有望進一步上調,現價計息率亦接近7厘有一定吸引力。建議可考慮現價買入,中線目標上望25元。 (筆者為證監會持牌人,並未持有相關股份) ******** 阿里(09988.HK)業績勝預期 恆指仍望20,668點 耀才研究部稱,隔晚(4日)美股走勢反覆,美國新申領失業救濟人數增至26萬人,多過預期的25.9萬人,道指及標指輕微回吐,納指升0.4%,市場觀望今晚(5日)非農數據來襲。商品價格反映仍然有投資者擔心衰退的風險,油價創逾半年新低,紐油自俄烏戰爭爆發以來首次跌穿每桶90美元,跌逾2%報88元水平;布油跌近3%報94元水平。本港方面,黑期預示恆指仍然有力反彈過百點,阿里-SW(09988.HK)上季經調整淨利潤跌30%至302.52億元人民幣,但仍好過市場預期,市場預估螞蟻首季度淨利潤為113.8億元人民幣,按年跌約17%。多間大行調高阿里目標價,短期有條件反彈至100元關口水平。 技術上,恆指首要反彈目標為7月跌浪的0.382水平,即20,668點,下一個較關鍵的阻力將會位於250月線亦即20,800點水平,需留意恆指多條月線向下移,發出多個死亡交叉,走勢仍屬利淡。 (筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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