海倫司(09869.HK):逆風環境門店迭代優化資源配置 成本管控效果初顯
2022H1 經調淨虧損0.9-1.1 億元,略優於我們預期。2021H1,公司預計實現營收8.7-8.9 億元/+(0.2%-2.5%);淨虧損2.9-3.1 億元(去年同期虧損2500 萬元);若剔除股份支付費用9900 萬元、100 餘家門店優化迭代調整產生一次性損失約0.9-1.1 億元,經調整淨虧損0.9-1.1 億元(去年同期盈利8100 萬元),虧損幅度優於我們前期業績前瞻預測(虧損1.3 億元)。 新店持續爬坡支撐營收增長。2022H1 公司營收微增0.2%-2.5%,考慮到疫情影響下同店日銷普遍恢復至在2021 年7 成左右(同店約400 家+),且1-6 月新開130 家門店/部分門店迭代關閉,而最終2022H1 收入錄得正增,預計主要系2021H2 以來新開門店的爬坡成熟對收入形成支撐。 人力成本優化效果初顯。公司自2021H2 致力於門店人員優化(門店人數優化至10 人左右),截至目前我們預計門店人員優化基本完成,人工端優化預計對盈利產生正向影響;原材料成本或有上升,據我們跟蹤,Q2 疫情結束門店復工以來,公司採用了較大的促銷力度以獲客,故我們認為公司毛利率端短期或略有壓力;租金端,由於公司2022 年以來集中在低線城市開設新店,租金成本預計相對可控。 2022H1 累計新開130 家門店,戰略迭代100 餘家門店。2022H1 公司合計新開130 家門店,我們暫維持全年開店400 家目標假設;此外公司公吿關店100家+,我們預計主要系1)疫情影響部分區域門店爬坡期拉長;2)部分門店選址不當;3)門店老舊小、需迭代更新綜合擾動的結果。我們認為,公司現階段戰略關店,是集中有限力量發展潛力更大、拓展難度更低的市場的選擇結果,本質是對公司現有資源的重新調配,未來預計會加大下沉市場擴張。 下沉市場新模型持續推進。據跟蹤公司利川新模型旗艦店表現依舊堅挺,週中日銷約3 萬元+,週末預計更高,其中新模型中加入的燒烤元素對收入貢獻效果顯著,未來此門店模型預計更多在低線城市推廣普及。 風險提示:開店節奏不及預期,疫情反覆,業務合規風險,行業競爭加劇。 投資建議:,維持“買入”評級。綜合考慮疫情對同店以及開店節奏的影響,下調2022-2024 年收入為29.34/50.34/71.16 億元( 原為38.65/72.75/118.58 億元),經調歸母業績為1.69/5.27/7.73 億元(原為3.05/5.88/9.66 億元),對應PE 為96/31/21x。短期公司經營承壓,但公司積極進行成本控制以應對逆風環境,公司未來預計將加大下沉市場深耕力度,此外新模型也將提供新想象空間,維持公司“買入”評級。
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