惠譽:中國刺激政策推動汽車市場V型反彈
評級機構惠譽預期,今年6月以來由於上海解除嚴格的長期封控,疊加中央和地方政府出台一系列促進汽車消費的刺激政策,中國乘用車市場已顯著回暖。受燃油車消費支持政策及電動車需求旺盛的驅動,強勁復甦態勢可能持續至今年第三季,使車市自一年前嚴重「缺芯」導致的銷量低迷中大幅回升,出現V型反彈。
惠譽指出,第二季內地乘用車批發交付量按年下降2.2%。隨著車企提高產量及經銷商補庫存以彌補防疫管控期間銷量下滑的影響,6月該指標按年強勁反彈42%。6月乘用車零售銷量亦按年增長22%,部分原因是6月1日起乘用車購置稅減半政策生效,使得部分5月份的訂單延遲履行,而部分7月份的需求提前釋放。此外,由於海外市場電動車需求強勁及其他地區陷入供應瓶頸,中國乘用車出口延續高增長態勢,第二季按年增長40%。
第二季電動車在中國乘用車交付量中的佔比超過26%。儘管在4和5月因停產和供應鏈瓶頸而放緩,第二季電動車交付量仍比一年前翻了一番。不過,惠譽認為,鑑於7月份部分品牌新訂單增長放緩,電動車企之間的價格競爭風險或將上升。考慮到電動車市場已出現數輪由成本驅動的加價潮,而利好燃油車的政策新近出台,消費者或重新評估電動車相對於燃油車的性價比。
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