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植耀輝: 美股回落業績續成焦點 港股21,000點阻力大
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,美股隔晚(26日)回落,企業業績繼續是投資者焦點,同時美國經濟陷入衰退之疑慮亦令外界關注全球經濟狀況。道指下跌228點或0.7%,收報31,761點,標普500指數及納指則分別下跌1.15%及1.87%。道指成份股中以Walmart(WMT.US)表現最差,大跌7.6%,該公司指因食品及燃料成本急升,令消費者在非必需品之支出減少,故再度下跌全年盈測;不過麥當勞(MCD.US)業績則每股盈利勝預期,股價逆市上升2.6%。本周尚有多間科企公布業績,預期美股將繼續波動。 至於港股,在阿里-SW(09988.HK)造好,加上內房股續有好表現下,恆指收市上升342點,收報20,905點。成交量雖然有所反彈,但亦僅得965.4億元,反映投資者入市意欲依然不高。畢竟息口去向加上內房前景仍備受關注。加上恆指於21,000點之上水平阻力不輕,待正式突破並企穩後,再作步署亦不遲。 股份方面,內房股連續第二個交易日急升,內地再傳出有利房企消息,中房協與浙江房協昨日在杭州聯合主辦「房地產紓困項目與金融機構對接商洽會」,被外界視為正面消息,結果相關股份再度急升,當中旭輝(00884.HK)上升16.7%,過去兩個交易日累升28.7%;碧桂園(02007.HK)昨日亦升13.4%,過去兩個交易日亦累升18.5%。雖然反彈幅度驚人,但本月計兩者暫仍累跌36.3%及23.5%。此外,昨日又有房企出現違約事件,寶龍地產(01238.HK)公布,尚未償還2,129萬美元到期票據及利息,另一批11月8日到期之3,725.9萬美元票據亦將會違約,預期相關情況未來仍會出現,在好淡因素左右下,預期內房股表現仍會相當反覆,故再次重申只宜候低吸納個別優質內房股,並待其逼近前阻力位後沽出。 (筆者為證監會持牌人,並未持有相關股份) ******* 恆指將回試20,700水平爭持 耀才證券研究部團隊稱,隔晚(26日)美股走弱,三大指數均跌約1%,科技股業績遜預期,納指跌近2%。IMF警告全球2023年存在顯著衰退風險,美10年期國債息率下跌至2.7厘水平,市場對後市氣氛悲觀。美國總統拜登和中國國家主席習近平將於本周四(28日)通話,不過未有提及將否討論關稅議題,投資者繼續審慎觀望。有指美監管部門不接受對審查中概股會計底稿設限,將拖累新經濟股再度回吐。此外,碧桂園(02007.HK)兩天累計反彈18%,最新宣布以12.6%折讓配股8.7億股,籌28億元,將引起內房資金鏈緊張的憂慮,內房回吐影響下,恆指將回試20,700水平爭持,等待方向。 技術上,恆指於6月低點亦即20,697點爭持,此位置同樣屬於6月至7月於22,000點造成雙頂的頸線位置,若果能站穩則有條件於22,000之間上落,否則以1,300波幅來量度預計跌幅的話,指數最悲觀的情況將會回到19400點。 (筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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