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《大行報告》摩通:若內地設房地產基金屬略正面 惟不足以迅速紓解擔憂
摩根大通發表研究報告指,有傳內地當局將設立房地產基金,緩解房地產行業的壓力,潛在資產管理規模達2,000億至3,000億元人民幣(下同)。考慮到停貸風波下投資者對樓市系統性風險及金融穩定的擔憂日益增加,即使消息尚未確認,該行亦認為措施略微正面。 摩通解釋,內地目前處於停工狀態的房地產在建項目資金缺口可能達到1萬至2萬億元,大大超過基金規模,因此即使推出亦未能迅速解決問題或紓解市場擔憂;又預期市場情緒只會暫時改善,除非官方政策出台或房地產銷售數據出現連續改善,否則預期反彈勢頭不能持續。 該行預期內房行業可能保持低迷,建議等待較好入市時機來增持中海外(00688.HK)、中海物業(02669.HK)、華潤置地(01109.HK)及華潤萬象生活(01209.HK)等防守型國企股。 而內銀方面,摩通認為房地產基金可能會給四大國有銀行帶來風險擔憂,並拖累其相對表現,但另一邊廂或有利於開發商貸款敞口較高的銀行,包括平安銀行(000001.SZ)和民生銀行(01988.HK),以及自停貸風波發生以來表現不佳的郵儲銀行(01658.HK)及招行(03968.HK)等。
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