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《大行報告》大和下調恆指目標至24,500點 薦三投資主題 首選阿里巴巴等
大和發表中國資本市場今年下半年前景展望報告表示,基於中國的週期性上升趨勢、溫和通脹及人民銀行積極政策支持下,料中國股市可成為一個相對的「避風港」。該行將上證綜指於今年年底目標從3,450點小幅上調至3,550點,同時將恆指目標點從27,000點下調至24,500點,相當於分別潛在上漲7.4%和17.3%。 該行表示,雖然市場關注中國最終是否會堅持2022年5.5%的經濟增長目標,但相信國務院總理李克強於7月19日在世界經濟論壇上的最新講話指出了政策方向,優先考慮就業和物價穩定,淡化增長率。在這種情況下,雖然基建和房地產刺激仍可能作為重要的政策工具,但該行認為刺激的總規模將受到地方政府財政預算緊張的約束,因此無法與2010年代初的水平相提並論。 大和預計內地政策制定者將採取一系列措施來促進平台經濟和消費,以解決青年就業率高的問題對刺激受益者的更新排序是互聯網平台、基礎設施、消費和房地產。 該行表示,總結為3個投資主題,第一是政策受惠股(鋼鐵、互聯網、酒店及券商),第二是毛利率復甦(日用消費、電池、互聯網、外賣),以及第三是行業特定主題(運動服裝、太陽能及電池材料)。 大和亦列出國內地/香港資本市場的首選股名單,港股包括阿里巴巴(09988.HK)、首都機場(00694.HK)、美團(03690.HK)、海爾智家(06690.HK)及金沙中國(01928.HK)。(wl/s) ~
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