華能水電(600025):量價齊升疊加財務費用優化 22年H1業績同比+42.6%
事件:公司公佈2022 年半年度業績快報公吿。2022 年H1 公司實現營業總收入111.3 億元,同比增長12.91%;實現歸屬於上市公司股東的淨利潤38.4 億元,同比增長42.64%。點評:發電量:來水偏豐+用電需求增加,帶動公司上半年發電量同比+8.97%。來水方面,2022 年上半年瀾滄江流域來水同比偏豐,其中烏弄龍斷面來水同比偏豐兩成、小灣及糯扎渡斷面來水同比偏豐超三成。用電需求方面,2022 年上半年雲南省內用電需求和西電東送電量均同比增加,其中1-5 月雲南省內工業用電量達到651.55 億千瓦時,較去年同期增長4.9%。此外,根據雲南電網公司消息,今年上半年雲南省西電東送電量達758 億千瓦時(含向家壩、白鶴灘外送電量),同比增長52%。來水偏豐疊加用電需求的增加帶動公司上半年完成發電量497.51 億千瓦時,同比增加8.97%,上網電量493.92 億千瓦時,同比增加8.97%;其中Q2 實現發電量321.24 億千瓦時,同比增長13.5%。電價:綜合結算電價同比增長1 分/千瓦時左右。我們認為雲南省內電價的持續上漲對公司綜合結算電價的提升起到了重要的推動作用。公司層面,根據公司公吿數據可估計2022 年H1 公司綜合結算電價約為0.225 元/千瓦時(不含税),較去年同期綜合電價0.216 元/千瓦時(不含税)上漲約1分/千瓦時。雲南省層面,根據昆明電力交易中心數據,2022 年1-6 月雲南省內電力直接交易平均價格為0.258 元/千瓦時,較去年同期增長0.017元/千瓦時。成本費用:成本費用結構逐步優化,利潤率穩步抬升。折舊方面,景洪、小灣、瑞麗江電站部分機組折舊於2021 年中後期陸續到期,規模約為350萬千瓦,帶動公司本期營業成本同比減少。有息負債方面, 2019 年瀾滄江上游電站陸續投產後,資本開支高峯已過,公司目前在建水電站僅剩下託巴電站,主要有息負債餘額從2017 年的955 億元降至2021 年的725.49億元。財務費用方面,有息負債規模的下降疊加公司精細化的成本管控,公司財務費用率逐年下降,由2019 年的21.3%降至2021 年的16.7%,2022年H1 財務費用同比下降約10.94%。我們認為公司債務結構的持續優化或將帶動利潤率的進一步抬升。盈利預測與估值:今年來水偏豐帶動發電量增長,電價延續上行趨勢,同時公司持續優化成本費用,上調盈利預測,預計2022-2024 年公司歸母淨利74.7/78.8/85.5 億元(前值72.9/77.1/81 億),對應PE 為17/16.1/14.9倍,維持“買入”評級。風險提示:電力需求降低;來水少導致發電量下降;電站投產不及預期等,業績快報是初步測算結果,具體財務數據以半年度報吿為準
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