吉利汽車(0175.HK):雷神浩瀚加持 開啟智能電動新週期
引言:自主龍頭,智能電動新週期在即4.0 時代產品結構調整初顯成效,雷神浩瀚技術落地開啟智能電動新週期。受新能源轉型節奏偏慢、3.0 時代主力車型銷量中樞下移的影響,4.0 時代開啟初期公司銷量表現一般。隨着新老產品切換到位,產品結構向好推動盈利能力改善。站在當前時點來看,雷神混動技術與浩瀚純電架構已落地,雷神車型相繼上市交付,極氪001 銷量爬坡,隨着後續新車上市,公司新能源比例有望迎來較大提升,將開啟智能電動新週期。雷神:技術領先,賦能混動轉型混動市場快速增長,自主份額突破,雷神有望成為下一個爆發的混動系統。受益於技術成熟與價格下探帶來的性價比優勢,比亞迪PHEV 車型快速放量,助推2021 年混動市場迎來爆發式增長。主流自主品牌均已佈局混動技術,逐步縮小與日系混動的差距。對比來看,得益於變速器的嵌套結構設計、3 擋構型以及發動機領先的熱效率,吉利雷神混動在燃油經濟性、輕量化設計、結構緊湊性與純電驅動性方面具備較強的競爭力,有望成為下一個爆發的混動系統。雷神車型相繼上市,初顯爆款潛力,新能源轉型加速。星越L 與帝豪L 的雷神車型已分別於2022 年3 月底、4 月底上市,截至6 月底雷神系列車型累計銷量過萬,6 月單月環比增速超161%。年內預計有8 款以上智能混動車型陸續上市,未來三年公司將推出20 餘款雷神智能混動車型,領克品牌將在2025 年實現全系電氣化。雷神加持下,混動車型加速上市放量,公司份額有望持續突破,帶動整體銷量提升。浩瀚:純電專屬,加持智電競爭力SEA 浩瀚架構智能水平領先,首款車型極氪001 產品力出眾。SEA 浩瀚架構擴展性與靈活性高,可實現全場景與全生命週期的FOTA。基於浩瀚架構的首款車型極氪001 配備高性能底盤系統與具備競爭力的智能硬件,且智能水平持續進化,新老用户可免費升級基於8155 計算平台的新一代智能座艙,終端口碑有望持續提升。車型空懸選裝比例較高,前期銷量爬坡較慢主要受到空懸供應緊張的影響,隨着供應鏈問題逐步緩解,車型銷量具備較大的上行潛力。浩瀚承載新一代純電車型,加持智電競爭力。對外方面,浩瀚已與奔馳等多品牌展開合作,彰顯了架構的領先水平。對內方面,據公司規劃,未來幾何等品牌將打造基於浩瀚架構的純電明星車型,品牌競爭力有望進一步增強。投資建議:混動電動共振,開啟新週期雷神浩瀚加持,公司開啟智能電動新週期。雷神技術實力強,有望成為下一個爆發的混動系統;浩瀚智能化水平領先,承載新一代純電車型;隨着新車陸續上市,公司開啟智能電動新週期。短期來看,受益於行業回暖銷量有望持續向上,雷神系列車型交付以及極氪供應鏈改善後放量助力新能源佔比提升。公司產品結構持續向好,單車ASP 有所提升,有望推動業績改善。預計2022-2024 年EPS 分別為0.67、0.88、1.15 元,對應港股PE 分別為21X、16X、12X,維持“買入”評級。風險提示1、新車上市進度不及預期;2、芯片短缺影響反覆,新車銷量不及預期。
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