植耀輝: 美股連升三日 港股暫難擺脫上落市
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,美股隔晚(21日)繼續造好,Tesla(TSLA.US)等企業季績表現優於預期,利好大市投資氣氛,三大指數均持續反彈並連續第三個交易日上升。當中道指上升162點或0.5%,收報32,036點,標普500指數亦升39點或1%,收報3,998點,納指則繼續跑贏另外兩個指數,隔晚再升161點或1.36%,收報12,059點。
回說港股表現。港股近期在美股造好下一度有所回勇,但投資氣氛未見太大改善,始終投資者繼續關注內房「爛尾樓」斷供潮所帶來之潛在衝擊,另一值得留意的是隨著港美息差擴闊以及銀行體系結餘進一步減少,本地銀行跟隨加息之壓力亦愈來愈大,雖然預期加息幅度預期仍相當有限,但亦會稍為利淡投資氣氛。在缺乏利好因素支持下,恐怕港股暫仍難擺脫悶局,繼續於20,000至21,000點水平上落。
板塊方面,談談近期表現不俗之航運股。股價造好包括相繼有公司發上半年盈喜,另外部分地區包括德國、美國西岸及韓國等因碼頭工人及貨車司機罷工,外界擔心會再次引發塞港,令運費相對硬淨,變相亦利好航運股投資氣氛。基於運費上半年按年仍有較大升幅,盈喜可說是預計之內;但運費見頂亦是不爭事實,預期年內運費將持續回落,早前航運巨頭馬士基亦曾警示8月後運費價格或會顯著回落。當然,估值低及息高依然是賣點,不過股價未來亦難有太大憧憬,所以若股價短期再升,建議可考慮逢高減持。
(筆者為證監會持牌人,持有東方海外股份)
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恆指繼續於20,700點爭持並等待新催化劑
耀才證券研究部團隊稱,美股隔晚(21日)先跌後回升,三大指數連續第三日向上揚,再創六周新高。歐洲央行11年來首次加息來應對通脹,今次加息幅度為50基點,高過普遍預期的25基點,隨後丹麥亦加息0.5厘。歐美地區進取地加息可能會引起衰退的憂慮,油價隔晚再度急挫,紐約期油再度跌穿100美元,低見94.5美元跌幅逾7%,收市仍跌3%。
美國總統拜登確診新冠肺炎,為市場帶來不確定性,由於市場憧憬他於月內跟中國國家主席習近平通話並取得利好成果,但現時的通話時間表可能要推遲,而且有指美國政府正調查華為的訊號發射塔會否取得敏感資料,預期恆指月內仍會持續於20,700點水平爭持,等待新催化劑出現。
技術上,恆指於6月低點亦即20,697點爭持,此位置同樣屬於6月至7月於22,000點造成雙頂的頸線位置,若果能站穩則有條件於22,000之間上落,否則以1,300點波幅來量度預計跌幅的話,指數最悲觀的情況將會回到19,400點。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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