迎峯度夏高峯，煤價蠢蠢欲動！
俄烏地緣衝突引起全球資源價格的暴漲，多個國家(如印度尼西亞和烏克蘭)限制出口煤炭的操作，再加上因大雨和洪水等因素令澳大利亞的動力煤供應受限，多國開啓「搶煤」熱潮。歐盟之後繼續嚴格執行俄羅斯能源制裁，將使得煤炭供應越來越緊缺，全球煤炭價格可能再向上。
內地煤炭的大行情已接近尾聲？
參考2005年至2007年煤炭超級大週期，當時煤炭指數在這週期曾漲幅達十倍，最終因煤炭企業增產，供過於求，加上當時宏觀經濟開始走弱。
當下煤炭的供需關係與前十年供大於求的狀況如何? 最主要差異爲各國正推進碳達峯的目標，煤炭企業已預期長線煤炭業務趨緩，最終會被新能源取代，導致現時煤炭企業不願意投資擴產，部分企業更將之前盈餘投資在新能源的發展，如兗礦能源去年公佈發展戰略重心在新能源，企業名稱更由兗州煤業改爲兗礦能源。
短期之內，市場目前不憂慮擴產導致煤價下降，最擔心煤價漲價太快，使得下遊端需求銳減，甚至乎經濟衰退令煤炭消費量也隨之下滑。
上半年國內動力煤價格持穩運行
截至6月24日，大同南郊Q5500大卡動力煤車板含稅價環比持平，報收940元/噸。截至6月29日，環渤海地區動力煤價格指數環比下跌1元/噸，報收733元/噸。
供給端：政策持續推進煤炭增產增供，煤炭供應和鐵路運量維持高位波動，短期環保安監加強致使煤炭調入量環比減少。
需求端：隨着疫情好轉復工進度加快，國家穩經濟政策逐步落地，工業用電將陸續恢復，同時高溫天氣下日耗維持高位。
供不應求下，預計下半年國內煤價在合理區間持穩運行。
龍頭企業受國內政策護航，享受煤價持穩運行行情
6月21日，國家發改委強調煤炭中長期合同實際交易價應在合理區間內。政策主要防止中小型煤炭企業哄擡價格、串通漲價等違法行爲。相比大型煤炭企業而言，擾亂市場價格秩序的代價高，預期不會在「犯規」的邊緣試探，將享受煤價緩慢上升的過程。故除非政府大力度設定煤炭價格上限，否則適當調控對龍頭煤企影響有限。
投資分析
內地進入電力需求最高的夏季時期，配合內地商業活動恢復正常，預期國內煤炭供求在下半年保持在緊缺平衡的狀態，價格也將長期緩慢的上升，煤炭股的強盈利週期大概率不會在今年結束，加上高息及估值合理，在市況波動下有一定防守性。
可留意以下：
1、穩定經營高分紅高股息目標中國神華 (01088.HK) (601088.CN)
2、高股息低估值轉型目標兗礦能源 (01171.HK) (600188.CN)
3、高成長低估值目標廣匯能源 (600256.CN)
4、國企改革受益目標山西焦煤 (000983.CN)
風險提示
1、保供力度迭加價格管控政策力度超預期，煤炭價格下跌。
2、鋼鐵下遊需求不及預期，鋼價出現回落。
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