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綠城管理控股(09979.HK):賽道正逢機遇 企業可見成長
格隆匯 07-22 00:00
投資亮點 首次覆蓋綠城管理控股(09979)給予跑贏行業評級,目標價7.50 港元,對應17 倍2022 年市盈率和14 倍2023 年市盈率及31%上行空間。理由如下: 房地產開發供給側變革帶來代建機遇。流量角度,供給側兼具資本條件和服務能力的重資產信用主體對應市佔率或將下降(在市佔率達41%的Top50 房企中,已公開債違約的企業和資本市場高度擔憂財務風險的企業在權益銷售金額中佔比總計44%),我們認為相關市場空白或將部分由資本與代建服務分離供給的方式予以補足。存量角度,財務承壓房企在手項目的後續處置或帶來階段性額外代建需求。此外,代建企業內生的發展訴求推動其業務拓展至政府及非住宅領域,帶來額外成長動能。 國資信用背書,品牌強、品質優。作為首家上市代建公司,具備國資背景的綠城管理佈局相關業務已超15 年。綠城品牌加持下,公司已發展出商業代建、政府代建及資方代建等多元業務能力,管理項目覆蓋住宅與非住宅多領域業態。截至2021 年末,公司代建項目合約總面積8,470萬平米,主要經濟區域合約面積佔比約76%,可售貨值佔比約75%,公司近年收入、面積等多口徑市佔率均位列代建市場首位。 商業模型持續迭代,收入盈利前置鎖定。跟隨房地產行業形勢變化,綠城管理在合作方、合作模式、配套服務等方面持續進化,積極捕捉各類型業務機會。2020-1H22,公司新拓代建合約金額保持22%-26%的同比增長,截至2021 年底已鎖定的在手訂單達108 億元(2021 年收入為22.4 億元)。我們認為公司業績兑現具備一定可見性,預計收入和利潤有望在2021-23 年分別實現20%和26%的三年複合年化增長。上市以來CEO 李軍先生多次增持股份彰顯信心,公司近期亦落地股份獎勵計劃、充分協同管理層與股東利益。 我們與市場的最大不同?我們認為房地產開發供給側變革為代建行業帶來充分機遇,公司作為具備先發優勢的龍頭企業有望持續進化成長潛在催化劑:業績穩健兑現、新拓合約增長、商業模式迭代、收併購落地。 盈利預測與估值 我們預計公司2022-24 年EPS 分別為0.37、0.46 和0.57 元,CAGR 為25%。考慮業績持續成長和商業模式進化對估值的支撐,我們給予公司17/14倍2022/23 年目標市盈率,對應目標價7.5 港元及31%股價上行空間。公司目前交易於13/11 倍2022/23 年市盈率和4.8%/6.0%股息收益率。 風險 行業競爭格局超預期惡化帶來新拓規模和利潤率壓力;開發端政策引導下,問題房企信用恢復程度和速度超預期;商品住宅銷售市場復甦慢於預期。
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