蘇泊爾(002032):外銷承壓收入下滑 盈利持續改善
核心觀點:公司公吿2022 年中報業績快報,Q2 收入下滑,淨利率同比提升。根據公司業績快報,2022H1 公司實現營業總收入103.2 億元,同比下降1.1%;2022H1 歸母淨利9.3 億元,同比增加7.8%。根據業績快報,估算2022Q2 營業總收入為47.1 億元,同比下降11.1%;歸母淨利為3.9 億元,同比增加9.4%,淨利率8.4%,同比增加1.6pct。收入下滑,主要原因:(1)外銷同比下降,具體來看:一方面,2020 年、2021 年外銷均實現快速增長,同比增速分別為12%、28%,外銷基數較高;另一方面,基於不確定的海外局勢,公司主要客户SEB 積極管理和控制庫存。(2)Q2 內銷增速有所放緩。受疫情影響,4-5 月內銷增速放緩,線下渠道影響較大,但是6 月整體增速有所恢復,根據公司公佈數據,618 期間公司線上銷售同比增長13%。2022H1 盈利能力同比提升,主要原因:線上渠道成功轉型以及產品結構優化,使得毛利率同比提升3pct(同口徑計算下),雖然費用也有所提升,但整體淨利率得到提升。海外需求趨弱,線上保持良好增長,線下渠道承壓。根據魔鏡市場情報數據,22Q2 蘇泊爾淘系+京東平台合計實現銷售額39.6 億元,同比增長17.1%,Q2 增速環比Q1 放緩5pct,主要還是受4/5 月疫情的影響,隨着廚房小家電需求恢復,我們預計2022H2,內銷有望加速增長。盈利預測與投資建議:海外需求有韌性,長期來看,公司外銷有望恢復增長;國內市場消費升級趨勢不變,Q2 以來廚房小家電需求回升,公司作為炊具、小家電龍頭,內銷業務有望實現良好增長。預計2022-24年歸母淨利同比增長15%、13%、10%,參考可比公司估值,給予2022年20xPE,對應合理價值55.33 元人民幣/股,維持“買入”評級。風險提示:原材料價格上漲;消費升級不及預期;海外市場疲軟
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