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縱橫股份(688070):“大鵬縱橫” 我國工業級無人機領軍者
格隆匯 07-21 00:00
我們首次覆蓋全譜系工業級無人機系統領軍企業:縱橫股份(688070.SH),給予“推薦”評級,主要理由如下:深耕工業級無人機,垂直起降固定翼無人機領域市佔率全國第一。公司成立於2010 年,聚焦工業級無人機系統研製及服務,產品覆蓋大鵬八大系列垂直起降固定翼無人機系統,具有能量效率高、航時長、可垂直起降和懸停等諸多優勢,深耕於測繪與地理信息、安防、巡檢、應急等領域的應用。2019 年,公司在我國垂直起降固定翼工業級無人機市場佔比53.8%,排名第一;在我國工業級無人機整機市場佔比5.4%,排名第二。研發投入加大,利潤率經歷波動後有望回升。1)2017~2020 年,公司營收由1.0 億元增長至2.7 億元,CAGR=38%;歸母淨利潤由0.14 億元增長至0.41億元,CAGR=43%。公司體量不大但增長較快。2)2017 年以來,公司淨利率先升後降,主要原因是公司產品由無人機平台轉變為無人機系統,結構變化以及階段性價格調整是導致利潤率下降的主要原因,未來看我們預計其淨利率有望回升且繼續提高。3)從應用領域上看,2019 年以前,測繪與地理信息領域為公司主要收入來源,佔總收入60%以上。2020 年以來,公司抓住安防等多領域向好態勢,實現多個重大項目落地,2021 年訂單總額同比增長33.39%。4)公司重視研發,2017 年以來研發投入不斷加大,研發費用率穩定在10%~15%之間。工業應用千億市場等待開拓;軍貿及特種領域也有望取得突破。1)近年來,無人機工業級應用隨着下游測繪、應急、安防、巡檢等多領域拓展實現了快速發展,我們預計到“十四五”末期,我國工業級無人機市場規模將突破1500 億元,佔全球市場規模比例超過50%。2)2010~2020 年,中國無人機軍貿佔全球無人機軍貿市場份額約17%,位居世界第三。公司自成立以來海外業務拓展良好,2021 年海外業務收入佔比11%(工業應用)。未來不排除在軍貿市場有所進展。3)垂直起降無人機產品具有低成本、多用途、環境要求低等優點,未來有望成為各國航空裝備發展的趨勢之一。我們預計到“十四五”末期,我國特種無人機採購規模將近百億,公司或有望受益於此。投資建議:公司為我國全譜系工業級無人機系統領軍者,產品譜系豐富,無人機產業鏈完備。受益於下游工業領域需求拉動,以及在軍貿和國內特種領域的潛在市場,預計未來幾年公司業績有望實現不斷增長。我們預計,公司2022~2024 年歸母淨利潤分別是0.55 億元、1.21 億元、1.85 億元,當前股價對應2022~2024 年PE 為69x/32x/21x。考慮到下游需求旺盛以及公司競爭力較強,我們給予公司2023 年40 倍PE,2023 年EPS 為1.38 元/股,對應目標價55.20 元。首次覆蓋,給予“推薦”評級。風險提示:下游需求不及預期、產品生產交付不及預期、技術風險等。
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