江陰銀行(002807)：基本面向好 息差持續擴張
格隆匯 07-21 00:00
江陰銀行披露2022 年半年度業績快報，我們點評如下： 營收增速超預期，為已披露業績快報銀行中的最高。公司2022H1 營業收入20.4 億元，同比增幅26.0%，為已公佈半年度業績快報的A 股銀行中最高，超出投資者預期；增速較Q1 提升3.7 個百分點。公司營收增長26.0%大幅超過平均總資產增速8.3%，隱含淨息差仍處在擴張區間。歸母淨利潤5.8 億元，同比增長22.1%（vs. 2022Q1：20.6%），穩步提升。公司上半年年化ROE 為8.7%，較去年同期提升1.0 個百分點。 信貸投放維持高位，負債策略上“價”先於“量”。2022 年6 月末，公司資產總額1601.2 億元，較年初增長4.6%，增速較去年同期（2.5%）有較大程度提升；貸款總額996.7 億元，較年初增長9.0%，略慢於去年同期（13.1%）；存款總額1210.1 億元，較年初增長5.7%，較去年同期有所放緩（vs. 2021H1：9.3%），主要是公司採取“價”先於“量” 的策略，控制負債成本，維持息差擴張。 資產質量持續改善，風險抵補能力大幅提升。6 月末公司不良貸款率0.98%，同比下降50BP，環比下降1BP，實現持續下降；關注類貸款率0.49%，同比下降47BP，環比下降2BP。撥備覆蓋率496.1%，環比3 月末繼續提升39.2 個百分點，風險抵補能力大幅提升。 盈利預測與投資建議：市場逐漸認識江陰銀行困境反轉的投資價值。 2016 年以前，公司受制於江陰地區過剩產能行業影響，基本面承壓；近年來江陰銀行基本面明顯改善，主要是：（1）“供給側改革”後過剩產能逐漸消化，受益於出口景氣和大宗商品漲價，當地支柱產業紡服、石化和金屬材料相關企業景氣度有較大改善；（2）客户選擇上，轉向大型客户上下游的中小企業，集中度風險降低，風險收益也更加平衡。預計22/23 年歸母淨利潤增速為25.3%/20.5%，EPS 為0.74/0.89 元/股，BVPS 為6.39/7.05 元/股，當前股價對應22/23 年PB 為0.77X/0.69X。“困境反轉”邏輯下公司投資價值凸顯，給予公司22 年1.0 倍PB，合理價值6.39 元/股，維持“買入”評級。 風險提示：（1）經濟增長超預期下滑；（2）資產質量大幅惡化。
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