《大行報告》瑞銀調整燃氣股目標價 降煤氣(00003.HK)評級至「中性」
瑞銀髮表研究報告指出,對中國燃氣公用股整體維持「中性」看法,並對今年該板塊的燃氣銷量增長預測,由中至高十位數,下調至10%,以反映由於疫情及燃氣價格高企導致的需求疲弱。預測行業平均天然氣量在2022至2024年增長約10%,較2021年16%水平低。相信行業平均固定邊際利潤將由去年的每立方米0.51元人民幣,跌至今年的每立方米0.48元人民幣。
該行對中國燃氣(00384.HK)及煤氣(00003.HK)的目標價分別下調20%及38%(看另表),對他們的2022至2024財年盈利預測分別下調16%及23%,以反映今年首四個月的燃氣銷量增長放緩,以及天然氣銷售毛利持續受壓。其中,將煤氣的評級由「買入」降至「中性」,以反映削減紅股分派導致股息增長的不確定性、香港天然氣收費上調幅度低過預期,及於中國的天然氣銷量增長和邊際利潤較同業低。
不過,瑞銀將華潤燃氣(01193.HK)評級由「中性」上調至「買入」,併爲行業首選,目標價由42元上調至49元,預期公司2023至2024財年的燃氣銷量增長15%至16%跑贏同業,主要由於更高的併購目標和管道。
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