植耀輝: 觀望氣氛濃 恆指續維持上落市
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,港股上周走勢相當波動,雖然一度重上22,000點,惟未能企穩之餘,恆指亦曾回落至21,200點水平,最終全周計則下跌134點。大市受多個因素左右,包括美國經濟前景、A股走勢以及地緣政局等,均令走勢變得相當反覆。從成交金額至上周五(8日)萎縮至僅1,058億元便可見一班。
醫藥股上周持續有資金追捧,個別升幅顯著,成份股中藥明生物(02269.HK)及石藥集團(01093.HK)分別上升11.4%及8.7%,中生製藥(01177.HK)亦升5.8%。另外,出口股亦見反彈,創科(00669.HK)回升8.7%,為第三大升幅藍藍籌。航運股亦造好,中遠海控(01919.HK)盈喜,刺激同業東方海外(00316.HK)股價上升,一周計累升7.3%。
不過部分板塊股價則續見反覆。世茂(00813.HK)逾10億美元債違約,內房相關股受壓,碧服(06098.HK)下跌6.6%,碧桂園(02007.HK)亦跌7.2%。另外,內地疫情反覆,一眾消費股表現亦麻麻,潤啤(00291.HK)跌7.2%,海底撈(06862.HK)亦跌超過2%;不過體育用品股受惠刺激措施出台,安踏(02020.HK)便反彈超過2.9%。
後市方面,由於投資氣氛亦相對審慎,故中美經濟數據表現對後市將有一定啟示。但短期而言,基於大市方向仍未見明朗,預期將續於21,200-22,500點區間繼續上落。
(筆者為證監會持牌人,持有創科及東方海外股份)
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中美無進展 恆指再度回試21,300點支持
耀才研究部稱,上周五(8日)美股三大指數個別發展,6月份美國非農就業數據勝預期,油價重返100美元關口之上,消息同時引領債息回升,10年期國債息率重上3厘關口,不過與2年期債息倒掛的問題持續,未能完全確認衰退風險消散。首批由美國對華加徵關稅的行動已於7月6日到期,不過拜登仍未就是否裁減對中國入口貨加徵的關稅作決定,更有消息指美國可能限制向中國出口芯片製造工具,將持續拖累大市走勢。同一時間,疫情困擾澳門,澳門的工商業場所包括賭場今日(11日)起停運七天,部份濠賭股例如銀娛(00027.HK)正處於交易區間頂部,宜減持避險。
技術上,恆指MACD開始出現熊信號,短期走勢利淡,指數由5月起形成了短期上升軌,小心如果跌穿21,300點軌道支持的話,則市況可能逆轉,需要回試50天線水平。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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